#141 Take Two / GTA 6, Blackstone, Gold, Eli Lilly, Indie Semiconductor

Summary

Theses (episode spine)

• Markets had a strong April recovery: S&P 500 up ~8% month-to-date, Nasdaq 100 up ~13%, and +19% from the late-March low; 82% of reporting S&P companies beat estimates with 15.1% average earnings growth — the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. Intel surged ~30% on strong AI CPU demand; Texas Instruments also beat strongly.
• Eli Lilly (LLY) is executing an M&A wave to diversify beyond its GLP-1 blockbusters (Mounjaro + Zepbound ~56% of revenue, patent protection until 2036): recent deals include Kelonia Therapeutics ($7B, in vivo CAR-T), Ajax Therapeutics ($2.3B, blood cancer), and Centessa Pharmaceuticals ($7.8B, neuroscience/sleep disorders). Max is bullish (holds since ~$650, +30%, considers adding); Stefan is bearish citing political risk from the Trump/RFK administration, risk of following Novo Nordisk’s -74% decline, and HSBC’s sole sell rating with an $850 target.
• Blackstone (BX) reported Q1 2026: distributable EPS $1.36 (beat), AUM record $1.3 trillion (+12% YoY), distributable earnings +25% YoY, inflows $69B. Non-GAAP EPS missed ($0.83 vs $1.32 expected) due to mark-to-market effects; BCRED had net outflows. Max is bullish (holds, would add at ~$110); Stefan skeptical of Private Credit exposure and sector opacity.
• Stefan is heavily invested in Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) ahead of GTA 6 (November 19, 2026): ~$50,000 EUR in call warrants with a $320 strike, targeting a 3x return. He expects the May 21 earnings call to confirm no delays and trigger a July marketing campaign with multiple new trailers and pre-order announcements.
• Max bought Indie Semiconductor (INDI) on the day of recording after an 8% intraday gain, bullish on its fabless automotive sensor chip business (radar, camera, LiDAR) and humanoid robot customers (Figure AI, Unitree). Stefan was unfamiliar with the company and neutral.
• Both hosts agree that Trump’s Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh will follow Trump’s rate-cut agenda once confirmed despite public assertions of independence; Trump’s public comments undermined Warsh’s case for neutrality during the Senate hearing.
• Iran/US ceasefire continues; the Strait of Hormuz may not normalize until September per a Dallas Fed energy CEO survey — Max frames elevated oil prices as a “growth tax” rather than a recession trigger.
• Stefan ridicules DIW economist Marcel Fratzscher for calling on Germany to sell part of its ~440B EUR gold reserves to fund public spending, using this as his “Schmutz der Woche” (filth of the week) segment.

$LLY (Eli Lilly)

Convergence / divergence: Clear divergence. Max views the GLP-1 cash machine and M&A diversification as a long-term compounder worth adding to; Stefan sees unquantified political risk from the current US administration targeting pharma pricing and draws a parallel to Novo Nordisk’s -74% decline from its all-time high.

Speaker calls:

• Max (bullish, long-term, entry ~$650): Eli Lilly’s GLP-1 drugs (Mounjaro + Zepbound) generate ~56% of total revenue with no patent risk until 2036 and ~27% expected revenue growth for 2026; the company is deploying that cash into acquisitions (Kelonia Therapeutics $7B, Ajax Therapeutics $2.3B, Centessa Pharmaceuticals $7.8B) to diversify into CAR-T, blood cancer, and neuroscience; Max holds since ~$650 and would consider adding another 1-2 shares.
• Stefan (bearish): Eli Lilly is down -21% from its November 2026 all-time high of $1,134; political headwinds from the Trump/RFK administration targeting pharma pricing represent a persistent risk for all pharma companies; the stock risks following Novo Nordisk’s pattern of a prolonged decline; the only Wall Street sell rating (HSBC’s Rajesh Kumar) cites overvaluation, a smaller-than-consensus GLP-1 addressable market ($80-120B vs $150B+ consensus), an impending price war with Novo Nordisk, and skepticism about the oral GLP-1 pill’s patient adherence.

Cross-check:

• Price: ~$874 (P/E ~40x, mkt cap ~$854-888B). Next earnings: 2026-04-30 (before open; analysts expect $6.85 EPS, $17.6B revenue, +25% YoY). FY2026 guidance: revenue $80-83B, EPS $33.50-$35.
• Recent headlines: FDA approved Lilly’s oral GLP-1 Foundayo (orforglipron) in April 2026 — a once-daily pill with no food/water restrictions. Acquisitions confirmed: Kelonia Therapeutics (in vivo CAR-T, $7B), Ajax Therapeutics ($2.3B), Centessa Pharmaceuticals ($7.8B, narcolepsy/sleep disorders). Lilly also acquired CrossBridge Bio (antibody-drug conjugates) in April 2026.
• Inconsistencies: The transcript refers to the oral GLP-1 pill as still in development — in fact the FDA approved it as “Foundayo” on April 1, 2026 (before recording). The acquisition named “Colonia Therapeutics” in the transcript most likely refers to “Kelonia Therapeutics” in official filings. Q1 2026 earnings due the day after recording (April 30) — listeners already know the outcome.

$BX (Blackstone)

Convergence / divergence: Clear divergence. Max views Blackstone as the best-in-class alternative asset manager with a durable fee stream and embedded AI infrastructure exposure; Stefan finds the Private Credit segment opaque and a dividend cut at a competitor a red flag, and prefers not to own the sector at all.

Speaker calls:

• Max (bullish, long-term, add target ~$110): Blackstone reported record AUM of $1.3 trillion, distributable earnings +25% YoY, strong PE flagship performance; it is invested in Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX and would benefit from any IPOs; the Private Credit headwinds are industry-wide but Blackstone’s Credit segment is ~35% of AUM with limited high-yield exposure; Max would add more shares at ~$110.
• Stefan (bearish): The sector feels opaque to retail investors; competitor Blue Owl’s stock fell -47% over 6 months; Blackstone’s stock is down from $190 (September 2025) to ~$120; a dividend cut by a Private Credit peer is a serious red flag; Stefan compared Private Equity marketing to retail investors to a shady used-car dealer.

Cross-check:

• Price: ~$121-128 (P/E ~31x). Next earnings: 2026-07-23. Analyst consensus: Buy, average target $156.53 (+31% upside).
• Recent headlines: Q1 2026 confirmed distributable EPS $1.36 (beat $1.33-$1.35), revenue $3.62B (beat $3.32B), AUM $1.3T — first alternative manager to cross this milestone. BCRED net outflows $1.4B in Q1; broader Credit & Insurance AUM $536B (+15% YoY). Quarterly dividend $1.16/share.
• Inconsistencies: The Medalia loan default ($3B written to 60 cents) mentioned by Stefan in the transcript was not independently confirmed in April 2026 cross-check sources — may refer to an earlier-period event or require verification. The -5% post-earnings stock reaction and subsequent weakness are confirmed. Max’s add target of ~$110 was the low on March 12, 2026 per his own statement.

$TTWO (Take-Two Interactive)

Convergence / divergence: Stefan is the bull with a leveraged thesis; Max is sympathetic but uninvested due to gaming sector unfamiliarity and warns of a Cyberpunk 2077-style launch disappointment risk.

Speaker calls:

• Stefan (bullish, through Nov 19, 2026): GTA 6 release date confirmed November 19; Q4 earnings May 21 will confirm no further delays and could trigger Trailer 3; a summer marketing campaign (July onward) with pre-orders, trailer releases, and potential game pricing above $80 will drive stock momentum; Stefan targets stock at ~$315 (+50% from ~$210) and a 3x on his warrants (from $50,000 to $150,000); he plans to sell before the actual release.
• Max (neutral): Acknowledges the GTA 6 hype cycle is real and self-reinforcing via YouTube/social media; warns that hyped games can disappoint at launch (Cyberpunk 2077 precedent); considers a more conservative long call at ~$250 strike; unfamiliar with gaming sector.

Cross-check:

• Price: ~$215-216 (P/E N/A, unprofitable; mkt cap ~$38-40B). Next earnings: 2026-05-21 (Q4 FY2026; analysts expect EPS $0.58).
• Recent headlines: GTA 6 release date November 19, 2026 officially confirmed. Take-Two laid off entire AI division in early April 2026 (Rockstar confirmed generative AI was not used in GTA 6 development). Trailer 3 broadly anticipated around the May 21 earnings call. Pre-order and pricing speculation active. Take-Two reiterated expectations for record net bookings in FY2026 and FY2027; full-year EPS growth seen at +90%.
• Inconsistencies: Stefan’s $320 strike warrant is deep out-of-the-money (~49% above current price). The stock has not returned to its 52-week high of ~$264, let alone $315. The May 21 earnings call is the pivotal catalyst — release date is already confirmed per company guidance, so the incremental catalyst is more likely to be a new trailer or pre-order launch announcement.

$INDI (Indie Semiconductor)

Convergence / divergence: Max is the lone bull with a newly initiated small position; Stefan offers no strong counter-thesis but notes that for automotive chips he thinks of TI and Infineon, and for lidar he thinks of Mobileye.

Speaker calls:

• Max (bullish, long-term, entry $3.93): Indie Semiconductor is a fabless chip designer (ticker INDI) with ~$897M market cap, designing sensor chips for automotive radar, camera SOCs, and lidar, and for humanoid robots (customers: Figure AI and Unitree — two leading humanoid platforms); the company divested its low-margin Wuxi China JV for $135M cash; core business grew 20% QoQ; analyst expectations for next week’s earnings are very low, offering high beat potential; institutional investors (Millennium Management, Royal Bank of Canada) recently increased positions 300-400%.
• Stefan (neutral): Not familiar with Indie Semiconductor; for automotive chips thinks of Texas Instruments and Infineon; for lidar thinks of Mobileye (Intel subsidiary); notes the 8% single-day jump was accompanied by a technical breakout and institutional buying.

Cross-check:

• Price: ~$3.43-3.66 (P/E N/A, unprofitable; mkt cap ~$771M). Next earnings: 2026-05-07 (Q1 2026, ~10 days after recording).
• Recent headlines: Q4 FY2025 results confirmed first radar chipset shipments to Tier 1 automotive partner and commencement of supply to US and China humanoid robotics market leaders. Company launched a UV laser diode for quantum computing in March 2026. Technical: 10-day MA crossed above 50-day MA on April 22, 2026. Analysts: 1 sell, 1 hold, 4 buys; consensus price target ~$6.45 (per Stefan’s cited data).
• Inconsistencies: The market cap cited by Max at recording was $897M; current data shows ~$771M, suggesting the stock retraced somewhat from the 8% day. The Wuxi JV divestiture for $135M cash is still pending Chinese regulatory approval per the transcript — this closing risk is worth monitoring.

Topics discussed

April 2026 Market Rally and Q1 Earnings Season

Summary: Max opened the episode by reviewing the strong April performance: S&P 500 up ~8% month-to-date, Nasdaq 100 up ~13%, and +19% from its March 30 low. He highlighted that 82% of reporting S&P companies beat earnings estimates, with 15.1% average earnings growth — the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. Intel surged ~30% after reporting strong AI CPU demand, validating the AI infrastructure investment thesis. Texas Instruments also reported strong results. Stefan confirmed strong portfolio performance.

Speaker views:

• Max: Very positive; his portfolio was up 25-30% for April. Attributes the rally to strong earnings, ceasefire optimism, and accelerating AI infrastructure investment; notes companies are now judged on actual AI revenue and cost savings rather than buzzword counts. Highlights the upcoming Magnificent 7 earnings (Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon on Wednesday; Apple on Thursday) and the Fed decision as near-term catalysts.
• Stefan: Confirmed strong performance; sold AMD call warrants for +94% (+$16,000 EUR) in the period.

Potential impact: Strong Q1 earnings momentum across the AI infrastructure chain could sustain the rally. Upcoming Mag-7 reports and the Fed meeting are the decisive near-term events.

Fed Chair Succession: Kevin Warsh

Summary: Max discussed the Senate confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh, Trump’s nominee to replace Jerome Powell. Senators focused on Fed independence. Warsh implied support for lower rates without stating it openly, arguing that inflation shocks may warrant different policy responses. He holds one of 12 FOMC votes as Chair but can lead press conferences and set the market tone.

Speaker views:

• Max: Notes that Trump publicly called for Warsh to immediately cut rates, undermining Warsh’s attempt to appear independent; believes Warsh will follow Trump’s wishes once confirmed.
• Stefan: Bluntly states Warsh was installed by Trump to cut rates and will do exactly that once in charge, regardless of public posturing.

Potential impact: A less independent Fed Chair could lead to premature rate cuts, potentially reigniting inflation — currently 1-year expectations are at 4.7%, the highest since October 2025. Premature easing would likely boost equities short-term but risk medium-term inflationary pressure.

Iran Ceasefire and Oil Price Outlook

Summary: The US-Iran ceasefire has been extended with no escalation but no resolution. Despite ceasefire news, the oil price has crept back up. A Dallas Fed survey of energy-sector CEOs found the majority expect the Strait of Hormuz may not normalize until September — roughly five more months of constrained supply. Max cited a commentator framing elevated oil prices as a “growth tax” rather than a recession trigger.

Speaker views:

• Max: Markets are “looking through” geopolitics to focus on earnings and AI. Concerned about European energy problems if the Strait remains closed for 5 more months; sees the situation eventually deescalating toward a peace solution.

Potential impact: Prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure could sustain elevated European energy costs, acting as a drag on economic growth and corporate margins in energy-intensive industries.

German Gold Reserves: DIW Economist’s Proposal

Summary: DIW Berlin chief economist Marcel Fratzscher publicly called for Germany to sell part of its 3,350-tonne gold reserves (worth ~440B EUR, the world’s second-largest after the US) to fund public spending on education and infrastructure. Stefan dedicated the episode’s “Schmutz der Woche” (filth of the week) segment to strongly criticizing this proposal and Fratzscher’s broader economic positions, including his support for autofreie Sonntage (car-free Sundays), speed limits, and income redistribution.

Speaker views:

• Stefan: Strongly opposes selling Germany’s gold reserves; calls Fratzscher a left-wing ideologue whose NGO wastes 300 million EUR of taxpayer money over 10 years, whose economic forecasts are consistently wrong, and whose policy recommendations he rejects as damaging to Germany’s economy; points out the Bundesbank — not the Chancellor — controls the gold, so the proposal is largely symbolic anyway.