#142 Alphabet, Tesla, Steuererhöhung Bitcoin

Summary

Theses (episode spine)

• Tesla Q1 2026 results showed revenue of $22.4B (+16% YoY), EBIT margin doubled from 2.1% to 4.2%, and free cash flow surged 117% to $1.44B — but margin improvements include one-time benefits from tariff refunds and warranty reserve releases.
• Tesla’s automotive segment gross margin improved to 21.1% (19.2% ex-ZEV credits), driven partly by higher-ASP Model S/X inventory selldown rather than volume growth — deliveries only rose 6% to 358,000.
• Tesla’s services segment (FSD subscriptions, Robotaxi, Supercharging) grew 42% to $3.7B revenue and is seen by Max as the key future profitability driver, with Active FSD Subscriptions up 51% YoY to 1.28 million.
• Tesla plans to invest $25B in 2026 (up from prior guidance of $20B), targeting six new factories, Cybercab production, the Optimus robot, and energy storage — implying negative free cash flow in coming quarters.
• Tesla currently has roughly 40–50 fully driverless Robotaxis in public operation (Austin pilot); Waymo has ~3,000. Max argues Tesla’s camera-only approach gives it a long-term ~5x cost advantage and the autonomous taxi market will be winner-takes-most.
• Max holds Tesla as his largest personal position (since 2018, ~1,894% gain / 20-bagger) and recommends a savings plan (Sparplan) for new investors; Stefan is considering a small speculative long-dated warrant (€5,000).
• Alphabet Q1 2026: revenue +22% to $110B, operating income +30% to $39.7B (36.1% margin), net income +81% to $62.6B (includes non-cash book gains from SpaceX and Anthropic stake revaluations). Free cash flow halved due to elevated capex.
• Google Cloud grew 63% to $20B+ quarterly revenue; Cloud Backlog doubled to $462B with 50% expected to convert within 24 months. Google Search revenue accelerated to +19% YoY from +10% a year prior.
• Max does NOT recommend new buyers purchase Alphabet at current levels: risk/reward is “no longer attractive” and valuation is “fair but not cheap” (adjusted P/E ~33x). He rates it a hold for existing shareholders.
• Germany’s SPD-led finance ministry announced plans to tax Bitcoin/crypto gains the same as equities (25% + solidarity surcharge), eliminating the current 1-year hold exemption; details expected July 2026. Stefan advises crypto holders with large unrealized gains to sell and rebuy before legislation passes.

$TSLA (Tesla)

Convergence / divergence: Both acknowledge Tesla’s solid Q1 operational progress. Max is a committed long-term bull and sees the autonomous/robotics transition as the defining investment story. Stefan is curious but cautious, noting the minimal Wall Street upside and flagging near-term risks (SpaceX IPO rotation, valuation). They agree a Sparplan (savings plan) is the sensible entry mechanism if one is to buy at all.

Speaker calls:

• Max (bullish, long-term, 20-bagger since 2018): Maintains position as his largest holding. Three-pillar investment thesis: (1) Tesla is the lowest-cost EV producer globally and will remain the world’s best-selling car; (2) fleet of 9 million sold vehicles is being upgraded toward autonomous capability; (3) Optimus robot and energy storage provide additional long-term upside. Recommends savings-plan entry for new investors. May add a speculative long-dated warrant (€5k). Dismisses concern about Waymo’s current robotaxi lead, citing Tesla’s ~5x per-unit cost advantage and scalability of camera-only FSD.
• Stefan (neutral): Does not hold Tesla; considering a small speculative long-dated warrant position. Flagged that analyst consensus is a near-flat +1% to ~$398 target. Raised the question of whether a SpaceX IPO in June 2026 could cause short-term rotation out of Tesla.

Cross-check:

• Price: $394.22 (P/E ~317–349x, mkt cap $1.48T). Next earnings: 2026-07-29.
• Recent headlines: Q1 2026 EPS $0.41 adj. beat ($0.37 est.), revenue $22.39B slightly missed ($22.64B est.). Capex raised to $25B+ for 2026. Cybercab in production; FSD unsupervised approved only in Austin. Tesla quietly disclosed ~$2B AI hardware acquisition in 10-Q. Elon Musk’s $56B pay package being executed.
• Inconsistencies: Stefan’s stated analyst consensus target (~$398, +1%) is consistent with available data. Max’s bullish robotaxi thesis is in tension with independent trackers reporting only ~40–50 fully driverless Tesla units in public operation vs. Waymo’s ~3,000 — a gap Max acknowledges but explains as a deliberate safety-first ramp. P/E of 317–349x was not discussed in the episode.

$GOOGL (Alphabet)

Convergence / divergence: Both agree Alphabet is a high-quality business with strong Q1 2026 results, and neither would recommend a new purchase at current levels. Max’s position is nuanced: the business fundamentals are excellent, but the stock has re-rated to “fair” rather than “cheap,” making his required margin of safety absent. Stefan would not buy either, though his reasoning also reflects personal frustration at having sold earlier.

Speaker calls:

• Max (hold, not adding): Has held since ~2023 at ~€100; currently ~+200%. Investment thesis — Alphabet is a vertically integrated AI player controlling its own TPU chips, AI models (Gemini), and end-user applications (Search, Cloud, YouTube, Workspace) — remains intact. However, at ~33x adjusted P/E, the stock is “fair but not cheap.” He would not recommend new buyers enter; existing holders should hold. Notes the ChatGPT-kills-Google-Search narrative is “definitively dead,” with Search revenue accelerating to +19% YoY.
• Stefan (no buy): Sold a prior Alphabet position to buy MicroStrategy — calls it his “biggest mistake.” Acknowledges the business is excellent. Would not buy at current levels; if forced to play, would use a call option rather than buying shares outright.

Cross-check:

• Price: $384.85 (P/E ~29x trailing; mkt cap $4.67T). Next earnings: ~late July 2026 (Q2 2026, exact date TBA).
• Recent headlines: Q1 2026 blowout: revenue $109.9B (+22%), operating income $39.7B (+30%, 36.1% margin), net income $62.6B (+81%, partly non-cash SpaceX/Anthropic stake revaluations). Google Cloud $20.03B (+63% YoY). Cloud Backlog $462B. CapEx $35.67B (doubled YoY); full-year guidance raised to $180–190B. Six analysts raised price targets post-earnings (Susquehanna $460, Canaccord $450, TD Cowen $450). Stock hit all-time high.
• Inconsistencies: Stefan cited an analyst consensus target of $362 (5% downside) — this appears to be stale pre-earnings data. Post-earnings Wall Street targets have moved significantly higher ($450 range). The episode was recorded on May 1, 2026 (earnings were April 29), so Stefan may have been using data not yet fully updated for the post-earnings consensus revision. No material factual errors on business metrics.

Topics discussed

”Sell in May and Go Away” — debunked

Summary: Stefan opens by categorically rejecting the “Sell in May” seasonal trading strategy. He cites 10 consecutive years of positive S&P 500 returns during the May–September window (ranging from +0.6% in 2017 to +25% in 2025 in EUR terms) and calls the annual media coverage “clickbait Scheißstory.”

Speaker views:

• Stefan: “In 10 years, the index has gone up [in the May–September window]. Anyone recycling this nonsense is just producing clickbait.”

Potential impact: No direct stock impact; framing device for the episode’s overall long-bias perspective.

Tesla vs. Waymo — Robotaxi competitive landscape

Summary: Detailed comparison of Tesla’s camera-based autonomous approach vs. Waymo’s lidar-based approach. Tesla has ~40–50 fully driverless units in public operation (Austin pilot); Waymo has ~3,000. Max argues Tesla’s cost advantage (~5x cheaper per vehicle to manufacture vs. Waymo’s lidar-equipped Jaguar ePace) and its scalable approach give it the long-term edge in a winner-takes-most market. Stefan raises MobileEye (Intel subsidiary) as another emerging competitor with ~100 VW ID vehicles under test, targeting public launch in H2 2026.

Speaker views:

• Max: Tesla will win long-term. Waymo’s geographic limitations (only operates in select mapped areas) and per-unit economics are not scalable. Tesla’s 9M-vehicle fleet has already collected the training data. Robotaxi market will have one or two dominant winners; Tesla’s scale trajectory from Cybercab production launch gives it the best long-term position.
• Stefan: Notes the current 40–50 vs. 3,000 gap is stark. Raises MobileEye as an additional competitor. Constructively skeptical but does not dispute Max’s long-term thesis.

Potential impact: Cybercab production ramp in 2026 is the key near-term catalyst to watch. If Tesla can scale to tens of thousands of driverless units by end of 2026 (as implied by Musk’s comments on the earnings call), the narrative gap with Waymo narrows materially.

Germany Bitcoin/Crypto tax changes — proposed elimination of 1-year hold exemption

Summary: German Finance Minister (SPD) announced plans to tax Bitcoin and crypto gains at 25% flat rate plus solidarity surcharge, eliminating the current exemption for assets held more than one year. Details expected in July 2026. Stefan plays a clip of the Finance Minister’s statement, which also mentions VAT increases and a plastic levy as part of a broader revenue-raising package.

Speaker views:

• Stefan: Strongly opposed. Notes ~11–11.5 million German crypto holders would be affected. Advises those with large unrealized gains to sell and rebuy before legislation passes to reset cost basis to current market price.
• Max: Contextualises it alongside broader German tax increases (VAT rise from 19% to 22%, income tax cold progression effects) as potentially the largest tax-increase program in German post-war history. Supports the sell-and-rebuy strategy for affected holders.

Potential impact: If passed, would eliminate Germany’s crypto tax advantage (currently one of Europe’s most favourable regimes for long-term holders). Could trigger a pre-legislation sell wave from German holders with large unrealized gains, creating short-term price pressure on Bitcoin and other crypto assets.

SpaceX IPO — potential rotation risk for Tesla shareholders

Summary: Stefan raises the possibility that a SpaceX IPO (rumored for June 2026) could cause short-term Tesla selling as investors rotate into the new offering. He also mentions unconfirmed rumors of a potential Tesla-SpaceX merger.

Speaker views:

• Stefan: Sees rotation risk as real near-term headwind for Tesla stock.
• Max: Acknowledges it as a possible short-term volatility trigger but says it does not change the Tesla long-term thesis. Structure of the SpaceX IPO is not yet clear.

Potential impact: Short-term Tesla price pressure possible around the SpaceX IPO if retail or institutional rotation occurs. Merger rumors unverified.