#150 SpaceX, Gold, Öl, Iran, Inflation, FED

Summary

Theses (episode spine)

• The US-Iran ‘deal’ announced by Trump is at best a Memorandum of Understanding — not a final agreement — with key contradictions unresolved on the Strait of Hormuz toll, uranium enrichment, reparations, and the Lebanon front; Stefan and Max are both sceptical that a durable deal will materialise quickly.
• The primary macro motive behind the timing of the Iran framework is to push oil prices lower so that US CPI (currently 4.2%, driven mainly by energy) falls and gives new Fed Chair Kevin Wash room to cut interest rates, which would boost equities and gold.
• Gold is at ~$4,320 after a 22% correction from its all-time high of ~$5,350; Max sees the $4,000 level as having held and expects a rebound toward $4,600–$4,700 once rate-cut expectations return, supported by ongoing central-bank buying (China: 19 consecutive months of purchases).
• Silver is back above $70 (+3% on the day) and is a large position for Max (~50% of his portfolio is in physical gold and silver combined); he treats gold and silver as the primary beneficiaries of any shift from rate-hike to rate-cut expectations.
• Stefan participated in the SpaceX IPO at $135 per share, received ~13% of his subscribed amount (~55 shares for ~€6,500), and is bullish on holding long-term, comparing the Elon Musk premium to Tesla and Palantir; he calls it a small ‘fun position’ of under 1% of his portfolio.
• Max did not buy SpaceX shares because he considers the valuation ‘absurd’ for a company with ~$15–17B in estimated annual revenue now ranked as the sixth-largest company in the world; he is waiting for a potential pullback to $70–$80 before initiating a position.
• SpaceX revenue breakdown (per Max): ~40% Launch Services (Falcon 9, Starship, government contracts), ~45% Starlink (7,500 satellites, 4.5M subscribers), ~15% xAI/AI services (Grok, AI supercomputer, government AI).
• Diamondback Energy (FANG) is a current holding for Stefan, bought around $140, now at ~$189.85; he is bullish on oil-sector shareholder returns (fixed + variable dividend, buybacks) driven by underinvestment in the industry.
• Nebius has risen 484% since the hosts first covered it ($44, prior year); Max holds a position with a blended gain of ~420% and recently achieved a 10-bagger on his lowest tranche.
• Germany’s electricity price (39 euro cents/kWh) is roughly a third above the EU average (29 cents) and second-highest in the EU after Ireland (40 cents); the hosts cite this as evidence of poor German energy policy.

SPCX (SpaceX)

Convergence / divergence: Strong divergence. Stefan holds and is happy to hold long-term despite the premium valuation, citing the Musk cult effect and Tesla/Palantir analogies. Max sees the same valuation as disqualifying and is waiting for a >57% pullback that analysts do not project.

Speaker calls:

• Stefan (bullish, long-term): Stefan subscribed at $135 IPO price, received 55 shares (€6,500 allocation out of €50,000 order), is up ~19% on day 1 and ~20% more on day 2, and plans to hold long-term, comparing the Elon Musk cult premium to Tesla and Palantir — he says the position is a small ‘fun’ holding under 1% of his portfolio and he could hold it to zero without concern.
• Max (bearish, waiting): Max did not participate in the IPO because he considers the valuation absurd for ~$15–17B in annual revenue, and is waiting for a pullback to $70–$80 before buying a first tranche.

Cross-check:

• Price: $191.82 (June 18, 2026; ATH $225.64 on June 16). Market cap ~$2.4T implied. Average analyst target $188.33 (5 Buy, 1 Sell).
• Recent headlines worth knowing: SpaceX IPO’d June 12 at $135, closed day 1 at $161 (+19%); reached ATH $225.64 on June 16; quiet period for underwriter banks ends ~June 23, after which bullish initiations are expected. CFRA Sell at $115, Morningstar fair value $63, Oppenheimer Outperform at $190, KGI Securities Outperform at $227.
• Inconsistencies: Max’s buy target of $70–80 is below every analyst’s price target except Morningstar’s fair value of $63; it implies a drawdown of >57% from the current price. No analyst currently projects a price that low.

XAUUSD (Gold spot)

Convergence / divergence: Solo view from Max — Stefan does not hold gold.

Speaker calls:

• Max (bullish, mid-term, target $4,600–4,700): Max holds a large physical gold position and expects gold to rebound toward $4,600–$4,700 once the rate environment shifts from potential hikes to cuts, driven by lower oil prices reducing CPI and giving the Fed room to ease; the $4,000 level held as support. China has been buying for 19 consecutive months.

Cross-check:

• Price: $4,260–4,278/oz (June 17, 2026). Down ~9% over past month but still up ~30% year-over-year. ATH ~$5,350 (consistent with hosts’ figures).
• Recent headlines worth knowing: Gold rose after US-Iran peace deal raised hopes for lower oil prices and Fed rate cuts. Forecasts suggest June 2026 range of $4,186–$4,933. Max’s target of $4,600–4,700 sits within the upper end of that projected range.
• Inconsistencies: Max cited gold at ~$4,320 at recording (June 16); search data shows $4,278 on June 17 — slight further decline, meaning the rebound has not yet materialised.

XAGUSD (Silver spot)

Convergence / divergence: Solo view from Max.

Speaker calls:

• Max (bullish, mid-term): Max maintains a large silver position (physical and via SILJ) and notes silver is back above $70 with a 3%+ gain on the day, expecting it to be a major beneficiary if the rate outlook shifts dovish.

Cross-check:

• Price: $70.94/oz (June 17, 2026). 52-week range $35.41–$121.58. ATH $121.67/oz (January 29, 2026).
• Recent headlines worth knowing: Silver advanced for 3 consecutive sessions after US-Iran peace deal. Still ~42% below its January 2026 ATH of $121.67.
• Inconsistencies: none flagged

SILJ (Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF)

Convergence / divergence: Solo view from Max.

Speaker calls:

• Max (bullish): Max holds a roughly €3,000 position in the Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF as part of his overall precious-metals exposure, alongside physical gold and silver.

Cross-check:

• Price: $29.45 (June 16, 2026). AUM $3.87B. 52-week range $14.12–$41.10.
• Recent headlines worth knowing: SILJ up from $26.33 on June 11 to $29.45 by June 16 — consistent with silver’s recovery. Still below its 52-week high of $41.10.
• Inconsistencies: none flagged

$FANG (Diamondback Energy)

Convergence / divergence: Solo view from Stefan — Max did not comment on Diamondback directly.

Speaker calls:

• Stefan (bullish): Stefan bought Diamondback Energy around $140 and now holds it at ~$189.85; he is bullish because oil prices remain high, the company is highly profitable, and returns cash via both a fixed and a variable dividend tied to earnings plus buybacks — he argues the industry’s underinvestment in capex increases shareholder payouts.

Cross-check:

• Price: $188.06–194.14 (June 2026). Normalized P/E ~15.65. Market cap $52.9–54.05B. Q1 2026 EPS $4.23 (beat estimate $3.74). Buy consensus from 18 analysts.
• Recent headlines worth knowing: FY 2026 EPS projected $17.86 with $18.08B revenue. Stefan’s entry of ~$140 represents ~$48–54 unrealized gain per share (34–39%).
• Inconsistencies: The large spread between normalized P/E (15.65) and TTM P/E (214) likely reflects acquisition-related charges or write-downs in the TTM period; the normalized figure is far more relevant for an E&P company.

$UEC (Uranium Energy Corp.)

Convergence / divergence: Solo view from Max — Stefan did not comment.

Speaker calls:

• Max (bullish): Max confirms he still holds a position in Uranium Energy as part of his commodity-heavy portfolio (~55% in raw materials including gold, silver, copper, oil, and uranium).

Cross-check:

• Price: $11.57 (June 17, 2026). Market cap ~$4.6–6.9B. 52-week range $5.90–$20.34.
• Recent headlines worth knowing: Significant price volatility in June 2026 ($9.42 on June 10, rising to $11.57 by June 17).
• Inconsistencies: none flagged

$NBIS (Nebius Group)

Convergence / divergence: Solo view from Max.

Speaker calls:

• Max (bullish, long-term): Max holds Nebius and reports a blended gain of ~420% with a 10-bagger achieved on his lowest-cost tranche; he notes Nebius has risen ~484% since the show first covered it when it was around $44, and remains bullish without stating a specific exit target.

Cross-check:

• Price: $291.00 (June 17, 2026; $265.10 on June 16). Market cap $70.15–70.69B.
• Recent headlines worth knowing: Nebius up ~30% in last 4 days before June 17; upcoming Nasdaq-100 inclusion; completed $643M acquisition of Eigen AI. Max cited ~$260 at recording, stock continued rising the next day to $291.
• Inconsistencies: none flagged — Max’s figure of ~$260 at recording is consistent with the June 16 close of $265.10.

$TSLA (Tesla)

Convergence / divergence: Solo view from Stefan — no directional call on Tesla itself.

Speaker calls:

• Stefan (neutral): Stefan references Tesla as an analogy for SpaceX — noting it has been called overvalued for years yet has compounded 32,000% since its 2010 IPO — but he does not hold Tesla and does not make a current directional call on the stock.

Cross-check:

• Price: $404.17 (P/E ~370, mkt cap $1.52T).
• Recent headlines worth knowing: Tesla trading at P/E ~370; market cap $1.52T, now surpassed by SpaceX’s ~$2.4T implied valuation.
• Inconsistencies: none flagged

$PLTR (Palantir Technologies)

Convergence / divergence: Solo view from Stefan — no directional call on Palantir itself.

Speaker calls:

• Stefan (neutral): Stefan uses Palantir as an analogy for SpaceX, noting he bought it at €8.53 on day 1 of its listing and held it despite widespread criticism that it was unprofitable and overvalued — he does not state a current directional call but implies continued conviction in the long-term hold thesis.

Cross-check:

• Price: ~$132–161 (range across sources, June 2026; P/E ~144–217 trailing, forward P/E ~92, mkt cap ~$319–323B). Next earnings: 2026-08-10.
• Recent headlines worth knowing: Palantir Q1 2026 revenue growth 67.71%, earnings growth 286.96%. Still trades at very high multiples.
• Inconsistencies: none flagged

Topics discussed

US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding — deal or optics?

Summary: Trump declared on Truth Social that ‘The deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete.’ The hosts analyse the announced framework: a 60-day ceasefire on all fronts (contested by Israel), reopening of the Strait of Hormuz (within 30 days, pending mine clearance), US lifting of the naval blockade, and unresolved disputes over a Hormuz transit toll, frozen asset releases ($25B demanded by Iran, $0 offered by the US), and the fate of enriched uranium stockpiles. The formal signing ceremony is scheduled for June 19 in Geneva during the G7 meeting. Both hosts are highly sceptical that a durable deal will emerge quickly, citing a prior false announcement roughly two months earlier and the unresolved role of Israel and Hezbollah.

Speaker views:

• Max: Argues the announced agreement is merely a vague framework, not a real deal, citing multiple contradictions between the US and Iranian positions on key points including the Hormuz toll, ceasefire scope, and uranium; he theorises Trump timed the announcement to give new Fed Chair Kevin Wash political cover to avoid rate hikes and eventually cut rates by pushing oil prices lower.
• Stefan: Deeply sceptical, recalling a similar false ‘deal’ announcement two months prior that lasted one day; he notes Trump has claimed a deal or victory approximately 40 times and expects the ceasefire will again be undermined by continued attacks, particularly given Israel’s independent objectives in Lebanon.

Potential impact: Both hosts discuss how a genuine Hormuz reopening would lower oil prices, reduce US CPI (currently 4.2%, heavily energy-driven), and give the Fed room to cut rates — benefiting equities, gold, silver, and bitcoin. Slow mine-clearance and remaining geopolitical uncertainty mean traffic through the strait will return only gradually.

US Inflation (CPI May 2026) and the new Fed Chair Kevin Wash

Summary: US CPI rose to 4.2% year-over-year in May 2026 — the highest since April 2023 — but Core CPI on a monthly basis fell from 0.4% to 0.2%, indicating the headline spike is almost entirely energy-driven. The first FOMC meeting under new Fed Chair Kevin Wash is taking place this week. Wash has previously argued that AI-driven productivity gains could have a significant disinflationary effect, potentially enabling deeper rate cuts. Trump wrote ‘I love inflation’ after the CPI print, which the hosts interpret as a signal that he expects energy-driven inflation to fall once the Iran situation resolves.

Speaker views:

• Max: Believes Trump orchestrated the Iran announcement timing to coincide with Wash’s first Fed meeting, so Wash can signal no rate hikes and guide toward Q3/Q4 cuts once energy costs fall and the CPI normalises; he sees this as deliberate policy coordination rather than coincidence.
• Stefan: Agrees Wash was likely confirmed precisely because he will act as a ‘party soldier’ for Trump’s rate-cut agenda, and that some justification (such as AI productivity or lower energy prices) will be found to cut rates — which Stefan views as positive for gold, bitcoin, crypto, and equities.

Potential impact: If oil prices fall materially (e.g. to $70/bbl), CPI could drop significantly within months, giving the Fed cover to cut rates; this would be highly positive for gold and silver in particular, which Max holds as roughly 50% of his portfolio.

SpaceX IPO — allocation, first-day performance, and valuation debate

Summary: SpaceX IPO’d on June 12, 2026 at $135 per share. Stefan subscribed for €50,000 but received only ~13% (~55 shares). The stock rose ~19% on day 1 and another ~20% on day 2 (recording date), bringing the price to ~$194 aftermarket, making SpaceX the sixth-largest company in the world by market cap — ahead of TSMC and behind Amazon. IPO banks face a 10-day quiet period (ending June 22); index inclusions into Nasdaq-100 and other benchmarks are expected within days, providing passive inflows. Max summarises SpaceX’s revenue mix: ~40% Launch Services, ~45% Starlink, ~15% xAI/AI Services. Analyst initiations cited: Oppenheimer Outperform at $190, KGI Securities Outperform at $227, CFRA Sell at $115, Morningstar fair value at $63.

Speaker views:

• Stefan: Bullish and holding long-term, arguing SpaceX carries an ‘Elon Musk premium’ analogous to Tesla and Palantir where retail cult following renders traditional valuation metrics less relevant; compares critics to those who shorted Tesla for years while the stock compounded massively.
• Max: Did not participate, calling the valuation ‘absurd’ for a company with ~$15–17B in estimated revenue being valued comparably to Alphabet; is waiting for a potential correction to $70–$80 and is also cautious about the lock-up period and quarterly earnings delivery.

Potential impact: Passive index inclusion flows (Nasdaq-100 additions expected after 5 trading days) and the end of the underwriter quiet period on June 23 are near-term catalysts that could support the price short-term; however both acknowledge lock-up expiry and quarterly earnings delivery will be a reckoning for the valuation.

Nebius Group — continued outperformance

Summary: Nebius (NBIS) is mentioned as one of Max’s top holdings. From its first coverage on the show (~$44, prior year), the stock has risen to ~$260 — approximately 484% or roughly a 6x gain. Max notes his blended portfolio gain is ~420% and his lowest-cost tranche has reached a 10-bagger. No specific forward thesis is elaborated beyond acknowledging the strong performance.

Speaker views:

• Max: Still bullish and holding Nebius, highlighting the 484% gain since first coverage and noting the stock recently passed $260; he mentions the show has not covered it in about two weeks and plans to revisit it in a future episode.

Oil market — Strait of Hormuz, OPEC dynamics, and sector implications

Summary: Brent crude was at $82–$83 on the recording date, still well above pre-Iran-conflict levels ($65 in late February). The slow normalisation of Strait of Hormuz traffic (only ~29 verified vessel crossings between June 10–14 per MarineTraffic data, versus a peak of ~70 per day) means oil supply relief will be gradual. OPEC and Gulf producers (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar) are described as opposed to any Iranian transit toll on the strait. Stefan had previously held an oil-leveraged ETF on Brent crude, which he sold; he continues to hold Diamondback Energy.

Speaker views:

• Stefan: Sold his Brent crude factor ETF some weeks ago and says oil stocks should have been sold earlier; uses Exxon Mobil as an example, noting it fell ~17.55% from its all-time high set ~2.5 months ago and is now below pre-war levels.
• Max: Remains invested in Diamondback Energy and several other oil names, arguing that the industry’s deliberate underinvestment in capex and focus on returns to shareholders makes oil producers structurally attractive as long as prices stay elevated.

Potential impact: Both hosts agree that a sustained fall in oil prices (e.g. toward $70/bbl) is the key transmission mechanism for lower US inflation, Fed rate cuts, and a potential re-rating of gold and risk assets — making the pace of Hormuz normalisation a critical macro variable to monitor.

German electricity prices and energy policy

Summary: Germany’s average household electricity price is ~39 euro cents/kWh, the second-highest in the EU after Ireland (40 cents) and roughly one-third above the EU average of 29 cents. Comparators cited include Hungary (11 cents), Bulgaria (14 cents), and Slovakia (19 cents). The hosts attribute this to what they call the world’s worst energy policy. The segment leads into a sponsor segment for Remind Me, an automatic electricity tariff-switching service operating in Germany.

Speaker views:

• Stefan: Argues Germany’s high electricity costs reflect chronically bad energy policy; notes his own contract is currently at 29 cents in Potsdam but the effective cost including standing charges is higher; recommends listeners switch tariffs automatically via the podcast sponsor.
• Max: Agrees Germany has among the highest electricity costs in Europe and draws a contrast with France (nuclear) which is lower, though he could not recall the exact EU ranking from memory.