#153 Microsoft, Mastercard, BAT, Bitcoin Steuererhöhung & Haltefrist...

Summary

Theses (episode spine)

• Guest Mark (dividend-focused investor, ~29 years old, ~12,285 EUR portfolio) bought Microsoft four times in Q2 (twice in May, twice in June) after the stock fell to a 2.5-year low around $352, arguing the sell-off from AI-capex fears is overdone and current valuation is the cheapest in 10 years relative to forecast earnings.
• Mark also added to Mastercard in April and June near the 2026 year-to-date low (~$471-480), viewing it as a shareholder-value compounder (buybacks, dividend growth) rather than a high-yield income play, despite headwinds from the Iran/Middle East conflict denting cross-border travel volume and a UK FCA competition probe into digital wallets.
• Mark increased British American Tobacco (his dividend cash cow, bought again in May/June using dividend proceeds) citing >5% yield, 25+ years of consecutive dividend hikes (dividend aristocrat), no UK withholding tax for German investors, buybacks, and growth in reduced-risk products (Velo, Glo, pouches) offsetting cigarette volume decline; host Stefan is not invested and finds the business model unattractive long-term given falling smoking rates and vaping/tobacco tax hikes.
• Mark argues Mastercard’s economic moat (credit function, chargeback/fraud protection, rewards) still shields it from stablecoins in the near term, but sees the BVNK acquisition (~$1.8B) and Mastercard’s participation in the 140+ company Open USD stablecoin consortium as evidence the company is embracing rather than fighting the blockchain threat.
• Stefan is skeptical of Wall Street’s uniformly bullish sell-side ratings on all three stocks (Microsoft consensus target $561 vs $383 price; Mastercard consensus $654 vs $520; BAT mixed with Deutsche Bank/UBS buy but RBC sell/Goldman hold), framing analyst price targets as easy-to-issue and pushing back on hype.
• Both hosts oppose the German government’s planned reform to abolish the one-year tax-free holding period for Bitcoin/crypto gains and tax them at a flat ~25% (plus solidarity surcharge/church tax), calling it unfair versus low-risk ETFs remaining exempt and questioning its constitutionality under Article 3 Grundgesetz equal-treatment principle.
• Stefan highlights that details of the crypto tax reform (start date, grandfathering of existing holdings, whether it applies retroactively) are still undecided, that a CSU doctor and an AfD contact indicated they would vote against it, while SPD, Greens and Linke are expected to support it, and that a constitutional legal challenge could take 3-10 years.
• Mark states Microsoft’s Azure has grown at ~40% annually and cites usage data (Copilot licenses across Fortune 500, Accenture, BMW, Mercedes) as evidence of durable enterprise AI demand, while acknowledging Microsoft’s ~$190B 2026 capex guidance pressures free cash flow and that EU sovereignty/Digital Markets Act gatekeeper designation are real regulatory risks.

$MSFT (Microsoft)

Convergence / divergence: Both hosts agree the AI-capex-driven sell-off looks overdone and that Microsoft’s enterprise AI (Azure, Copilot) demand remains durable, but they diverge on personal positioning — Mark is actively buying while Stefan is sitting out purely because his portfolio is already concentrated elsewhere, not because he disputes the thesis.

Speaker calls:

• Mark (bullish, long-term): “Mark bought Microsoft four times in Q2 2026 (twice in May, twice in June) after the stock fell to a 2.5-year low, believes the AI-capex sell-off is overdone, and is now up about 17% overall while treating $350-$400 as an attractive range to add if he were buying more.”
• Stefan (neutral): “Stefan is not buying Microsoft himself because he already has concentrated positions in Palantir (~17.76% of his portfolio) and AMD (~48%), but agrees the sell-off looks like AI-fear driven overreaction and notes Wall Street’s consensus target of $561 implies 46% upside.”

Cross-check:

• Price: $388.84 (P/E 22.89, down ~25% from its 12-month average of 30.68; mkt cap $2.85T). Next earnings: 2026-07-29.
• Recent headlines worth knowing: Stock down from highs amid AI capex concerns; European push for “digital sovereignty” away from US cloud/software providers continues to be a live regulatory topic.
• ⚠️ Inconsistencies: none flagged.

$MA (Mastercard)

Convergence / divergence: The hosts diverge clearly — Mark sees Mastercard as a long-term compounder whose credit/chargeback/rewards moat still holds against stablecoins, while Stefan sees a stock that has underperformed the Nasdaq-100 and American Express over 1 and 5 years and is facing multiple near-term headwinds (travel slowdown, regulatory probe, slowing card growth).

Speaker calls:

• Mark (bullish, long-term): “Mark added to Mastercard in April and June near the 2026 low, holds it for share buybacks and dividend growth (~229% dividend hike over 9 years) rather than yield, considers his target position size now reached, and sees stablecoins as only a long-term threat given Mastercard’s credit/chargeback/rewards moat and its BVNK acquisition and Open USD stablecoin consortium membership.”
• Stefan (bearish): “Stefan calls Mastercard ‘slowly boring’ and says he wouldn’t buy it himself (preferring options), pointing out the stock has underperformed the Nasdaq-100 and American Express over 1 and 5 years, and flagging the Iran conflict travel slowdown, a UK FCA competition probe into digital wallets, and slowing new-card growth as reasons for the decline.”

Cross-check:

• Price: $539.39 (P/E ~31.18, or 28.61 per another late-June source; mkt cap $441.5B). Next earnings: not found in search results.
• Recent headlines worth knowing: Q1 2026 EPS $4.36 on revenue $8.40B; ongoing narrative around stablecoins as a competitive/collaborative threat to card networks.
• ⚠️ Inconsistencies: none flagged.

$BATS (British American Tobacco)

Convergence / divergence: Both sides acknowledge BAT’s cash-generative, high-yield character, but Mark treats the >5% yield, 25+ year dividend-hike streak and reduced-risk-product growth as durable compounding, while Stefan questions the multi-decade business model given structurally declining smoking rates and rising tobacco taxation, even while conceding BAT still books over 50% of operating profit in the US and remains strong in high-smoking markets like Turkey and India.

Speaker calls:

• Mark (bullish, long-term): “Mark has about 6,000 EUR invested in BAT since late 2024, is up ~40% and already received back ~10% of invested capital in dividends, keeps buying with dividend proceeds citing a >5% yield, 25+ years of consecutive dividend increases, no UK withholding tax for German investors, buybacks, and growth in reduced-risk products offsetting cigarette decline; he would watch more closely for a bigger buy if it fell below ~45 EUR.”
• Stefan (bearish): “Stefan says BAT ‘is nothing’ for him personally, doubting the long-term viability of the tobacco business model given declining smoking rates and rising German tobacco/e-liquid taxes (with further hikes through 2030), even though he acknowledges BAT still generates over 50% of operating profit in the US and remains strong in high-smoking markets like Turkey and India.”

Cross-check:

• Price: ~44.62 GBP (LSE quotes in pence: 4,462 GBX), roughly 51-53 EUR — in line with the ~53 EUR level cited on the show (P/E ~13.03, or 12.41 trailing-12m; mkt cap 96.42B GBP). Next earnings: 2026-07-30.
• Recent headlines worth knowing: Stock up ~43% over the past year; dividend yield 5.39%; average 12-month analyst price target ~5,054.5 GBX (above current price); German e-liquid/tobacco tax increases in the news.
• ⚠️ Inconsistencies: none flagged beyond the price-quoting convention (LSE lists BATS in pence, not pounds).

Topics discussed

German crypto capital-gains tax reform (“Bitcoinsteuer”)

Summary: The German government (Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil) is planning to abolish the one-year tax-free holding period for Bitcoin and crypto gains, taxing them at a flat rate similar to stocks (~25% plus solidarity surcharge and church tax if applicable), possibly starting next year, though key details (grandfathering, effective date, reporting mechanism) are not yet finalized as the Bundestag enters summer recess.

Speaker views:

• Stefan: Calls the reform “Schmutz der Woche” (dirty pick of the week), argues it is unfair since low-risk ETFs are not taxed the same way, questions how gains/cost basis would even be tracked when crypto is transferred between wallets/exchanges without price data, and reports mixed responses from politicians he contacted: an SPD politician defended it as fair, an AfD contact said he’d vote against it, and a CSU doctor also said he’d vote against it.

Potential impact: Stefan notes a constitutional challenge under Article 3 Grundgesetz (equal treatment) could be filed and might take 3-10 years to resolve through the courts, meaning holders could keep deferring sales, but anyone needing to sell crypto soon would face the new tax if it passes; he compares it to Austria’s approach where exchanges must report cost basis or default to zero, maximizing taxable gains.

Mastercard vs. stablecoins

Summary: The discussion covered whether stablecoins threaten Mastercard’s card network business, noting stablecoin settlement is near-instant and near-free versus Mastercard’s 1.5-3% take rate and multi-day settlement, but that Mastercard retains advantages via credit functionality, chargeback/fraud protection, and loyalty/rewards programs.

Speaker views:

• Mark: Argues Mastercard is embracing rather than fighting stablecoins, pointing to its ~$1.8B acquisition of BVNK and Mastercard’s membership (alongside Visa, Amex, Stripe, banks and crypto firms) in the new Open USD stablecoin consortium launched in June 2026.

Potential impact: Both hosts note that in cross-border B2B payments and emerging markets with weak banking infrastructure, stablecoins are already taking real volume from card networks, which could pressure Mastercard’s high-margin cross-border fee revenue over time.

European ‘digital sovereignty’ push away from Microsoft

Summary: Multiple European governments and regions (Schleswig-Holstein migrating ~30,000 government workstations off Microsoft to Libre Office/Nextcloud, Denmark, Netherlands, Austria’s military, Switzerland’s canton of Zurich, France requiring 2.5 million civil servants off US tools by 2026) are moving away from Microsoft products, driven partly by a 2025 incident where the ICC chief prosecutor’s Microsoft email account was suspended due to US sanctions.

Speaker views:

• Stefan: Researched (via Gemini) that despite these headline-grabbing initiatives, Wall Street analysts remain unconcerned because of strong lock-in effects and because Microsoft is countering with “Sovereign Cloud” joint ventures (Delos Cloud with SAP in Germany, Bleu with Orange/Capgemini in France) that keep large state contracts while satisfying data-residency rules.

Potential impact: Stefan notes the EU’s Digital Markets Act gatekeeper designation for Microsoft Azure and Amazon AWS (finalized end of June 2026) is viewed by analysts as a bigger risk than the sovereignty movement itself, given potential for large fines and forced platform-opening requirements.

German tobacco/e-liquid tax increases

Summary: Germany’s tobacco tax on cigarettes and e-liquids is set to rise in stages through 2030 (cigarette tax from 12.28 to 17.41 cents per stick; e-liquid tax from 0.32 to 0.36 EUR per ml), which the hosts discussed as a factor in BAT’s investment case.

Speaker views:

• Mark: Thinks rising taxes on both traditional cigarettes and disposable vapes will push consumers either to quit or to cheaper refillable vape systems, and sees a related opportunity in reduced-risk products (pouches, Velo, Glo) growing ~50% year over year, plus potential upside if the US crackdown on illegal Chinese disposable vapes pushes consumers to regulated alternatives.
• Stefan: A former heavy smoker who quit via hypnosis in 2006, is skeptical the tobacco business model is sustainable long-term given falling smoking rates and constant tax increases, though he does not frame this as a formal price call.