#159 Wir haben Gold & Silber gekauft, Reich in Rente

Summary

Theses (episode spine)

• Gold rallied 7.4% last week, driven by a much weaker-than-expected US jobs report (-23k jobs vs +85k expected) that pushed rate-hike expectations down to at most one hike this year, lowering the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset like gold.
• Central bank gold buying accelerated in Q2 2026 (289 tonnes, +62% YoY), led by China (10t in May, 15t in June, 20t in July); the Bank of Korea resumed gold purchases after a 13-year pause.
• Both hosts are bullish on gold. Max wants to wait for Wednesday’s US CPI print before buying — targeting a move toward $4500 if inflation is soft or a buy at the $4000 support if it runs hot — and expects a return to the $5000 level around early 2027. Stefan already bought a long-running gold warrant last week (EUR10,600 notional, currently up about 10%).
• Both hosts recommend two specific tax-free German gold/silver ETCs for lower-risk exposure held over one year: the WisdomTree Physical Swiss Gold ETC (WKN A1DCTK, 0.15% fee) and the WisdomTree Core Physical Silver ETC (WKN A4AE1X, 0.19% fee), both physically backed with delivery option.
• Silver has almost halved from its January all-time high near $115 to about $64, but is still up 72% over one year and 175% over five years in USD terms — both hosts remain buyers, with Max noting silver is more volatile than gold in both directions.
• Copper hit a fresh all-time high on AI/data-center-driven demand and a worsening supply deficit tied to a sulfuric-acid shortage from the Strait of Hormuz disruption (about a quarter of global sulfuric acid supply); Max is bullish and holds a copper miners ETF and says anyone who believes the AI infrastructure story can buy copper, while Stefan is more cautious about adding leveraged copper exposure at an all-time high.
• Trump’s new executive order, effective 1 January 2027, forces US defense contractors to trace critical-mineral supply chains back to the mine (covering samarium-cobalt magnets, neodymium-iron-boron magnets, tungsten, tantalum, molybdenum), which the hosts view as bullish for the US mining and critical-minerals sector.
• Schmutz der Woche: both hosts mock Zeit journalist Mark Schieritz’s column calling compound interest a “myth” for small savers, countering with online compound-interest calculators and a hypothetical 25-year-old investing EUR160/month in the S&P 500 reaching millionaire status by retirement.

$GOLD (Gold, spot / physical ETC exposure)

Convergence / divergence: Full agreement on direction — both bullish — but different structures: Stefan is already positioned via a leveraged warrant, while Max is waiting for the next CPI print before adding.

Speaker calls:

• Stefan (bullish, long-term): Stefan bought a long-running gold warrant worth EUR10,600 last week and is already up about 10%, and separately recommends the tax-free WisdomTree Physical Swiss Gold ETC (WKN A1DCTK, 0.15% fee) for lower-risk exposure.
• Max (bullish, into early 2027, target $5,000): Max wants to wait for the next day’s US CPI print before buying — expecting gold toward $4500 if inflation comes in soft, or a buying opportunity near $4000 support if it runs hot — and expects gold to reach $5000 around the start of next year given no further Fed hikes and continued central bank demand.

Cross-check:

• Price: $4,397-4,432/oz spot. No earnings date (commodity).
• Recent headlines worth knowing: gold trading near $4,400/oz on August 12, up from prior-week levels; central bank buying (led by China) and soft labor data continuing to support prices ahead of the August 12 US CPI print.
• ⚠️ Inconsistencies: spot price (~$4,400) is well above the $4,000 support level and roughly midway toward Max’s ~$4,500 near-term / $5,000 longer-term targets — consistent with the bullish thesis, no contradiction flagged.

$SILVER (Silver, spot / physical ETC exposure)

Convergence / divergence: Full agreement — both call silver a buy at current levels despite it being down nearly 50% from its January all-time high.

Speaker calls:

• Stefan (bullish, unspecified): Stefan already holds a leveraged silver warrant that is down about 30% after buying too early, still calls silver a buy here, and recommends the tax-free WisdomTree Core Physical Silver ETC (WKN A4AE1X, 0.19% fee) for those who want lower risk.
• Max (bullish, unspecified): Max says silver is a buy now, describing it as the more volatile “little brother” of gold that tends to outperform gold on both rallies and drawdowns, and holds silver exposure via options.

Cross-check:

• Price: $65-66/oz spot. No earnings date (commodity).
• Recent headlines worth knowing: silver trading around $66/oz amid a strong August rebound, continuing to recover from its post-January-ATH pullback.
• ⚠️ Inconsistencies: none flagged — current spot ($65-66) is close to the ~$64 level the hosts cited during recording.

$COPPER (Copper, spot / miners ETF exposure)

Convergence / divergence: Divergence — Max is an active buyer/holder framing copper as a way to play the AI infrastructure buildout, while Stefan is more cautious about chasing an all-time high and warns copper could stay underwater for one to two years if the economy cools or the AI trade unwinds.

Speaker calls:

• Max (bullish, long-term): Max holds a copper miners ETF and says anyone who believes the AI infrastructure buildout story can add copper exposure via an ETC or ETF, citing a widening supply deficit worsened by a sulfuric-acid shortage from the Strait of Hormuz disruption.
• Stefan (neutral, unspecified): Stefan is more cautious about buying copper at an all-time high, noting the price can stay underwater for one to two years if the economy cools, and says he would be careful with leveraged copper exposure since a collapse in the AI trade would likely drag copper down too.

Cross-check:

• Price: record high ~$6.77/lb (COMEX) / ~$14,455/tonne (LME). No earnings date (commodity).
• Recent headlines worth knowing: copper hit a fresh all-time high in early August 2026 on AI data-center and power-grid demand plus supply constraints, including news that the DRC would ban copper concentrate exports.
• ⚠️ Inconsistencies: none flagged — the record-high move and AI/data-center demand narrative match what the hosts described during recording.

Topics discussed

Trump executive order on critical mineral supply chains

Summary: A new US executive order, effective 1 January 2027, requires defense contractors to trace their critical-mineral supply chains back to the mine and pushes toward domestic sourcing, covering materials such as samarium-cobalt magnets, neodymium-iron-boron magnets, tungsten metal powder and alloys, tantalum metal and alloys, and molybdenum.

Speaker views:

• Max: Calls the order a bullish signal for the US mining/critical-minerals sector as Washington tries to reduce dependence on China, Russia and Iran for these materials, and offered to cover specific beneficiary companies in a future episode if listeners are interested.

Potential impact: Max frames it as supportive for the US domestic mining and critical-minerals sector given tighter procurement rules and reduced flexibility to source from geopolitical rivals.

Schmutz der Woche: rebuttal of Zeit journalist Mark Schieritz on compound interest

Summary: Stefan reads a Zeit (paywalled) column by Mark Schieritz arguing that compound interest is a “myth” for small savers because low capital or savings rates make wealth building too slow to matter within a lifetime, and that the article also questions infinite economic growth on a resource-limited planet. Both hosts push back using online compound-interest calculators and a hypothetical 25-year-old investing EUR160/month in the S&P 500 reaching millionaire status by retirement, contrasting Schieritz’s take with a reader comment from a retired UBS wealth manager showing his own portfolio’s real-world compounding results.

Speaker views:

• Stefan: Argues Schieritz, despite economics degrees from Freiburg, Harvard and LSE, doesn’t understand basic compound interest, and contrasts the column with a reader’s real portfolio example showing decades of successful compounding; also argues income can be raised through better job choice, further qualification or negotiating raises rather than blaming employers or the tax system.
• Max: Says the concept of compound interest is taught as early as sixth or seventh grade in school and questions how a financial journalist with an economics background could misunderstand it, noting that dividend reinvestment is a basic real-world example of the same mechanism.