#143 Palantir, Novo Nordisk, Axon

Summary

Theses (episode spine)

• Palantir posted a blowout Q1 2026: revenue $1.633B (+85% YoY), EBITDA margin 61%, Rule of 40 score of 145% — a figure no other large global company reaches — and Q2 guidance of $1.797–1.80B implying ~90% YoY growth; both hosts are bullish.
• The post-earnings dip in Palantir (-5% after-hours, -9% intraday next day) was driven by high valuation (52x free cash flow), a slight miss in US Commercial revenue ($595M vs $605M expected), and software-sector AI disruption fears — not by fundamental weakness.
• Novo Nordisk Q1 2026 showed a large headline beat ($15.2B vs $11.2B expected) but included a one-time $4.2B US 340B drug-pricing program effect; adjusted revenue was ~$11B with organic obesity-care growth of ~22% YoY at constant currencies. Full-year guidance implies -4% to -12% revenue growth due to US drug-pricing pressure.
• Stefan is firmly bearish on Novo Nordisk — calling it rubbish — arguing the stock is down 43% from its June 2024 peak, has underperformed the Nasdaq 100 massively over 5 years, and faces structural US drug-pricing headwinds. Max holds his position and sees potential to double from current levels.
• Axon Enterprise Q1 2026: revenue $807M (+34% YoY), ARR $1.5B (+35%), future contracted bookings $14.3B (+44%); full-year growth guidance raised to 30–32% from 27–30%. International revenue grew 117% YoY to $161M (now 20% of total). Max is bullish long-term but is ~30% underwater at ~$403 vs his ~$600 entry.
• Max views the Axon AI-disruption selloff as unwarranted given the hardware-software mix (roughly 56% hardware / 44% software and services), a strong government moat analogous to Palantir, and accelerating Platform Solutions revenue (+95% YoY). Stefan considers the current price an attractive entry if one has liquidity.
• Both hosts cited strong macro context: S&P 500 and Nasdaq at all-time highs on recording day (8 May 2026), driven by a sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit S&P 500 EPS growth, hyperscaler capex topping $700B for 2026, and a much-stronger-than-expected US payrolls print (+115K vs 55K expected).
• Hyperscalers (Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta) are now acting as infrastructure bankers — directly co-investing in or pre-paying SK Hynix and other memory producers to secure HBM supply for AI workloads, locking in exclusive supply guarantees and strategic production capacity.

$PLTR (Palantir Technologies)

Convergence / divergence: Both hosts are bullish and recommend buying, though Stefan emphasises caution with a tranche-based approach due to volatility (stock fell from $207 on 3 Nov 2024 to $137), while Max is focused on the growth fundamentals and targets $200 this year.

Speaker calls:

• Max (bullish, long-term, target $200): Rule of 40 at 145% is unmatched globally; Q2 guidance implies 90% YoY growth; Maven AI military platform usage doubled in 4 months; $8B cash and zero debt; target around $200 this year with potential to exceed that.
• Stefan (bullish, long-term): Buy a first tranche now while stock is down on AI-scare sentiment; avoid leveraged products given 34% drawdown from the November 2024 high of $207; Palantir is becoming the OS of the US military with a White House ally.

Cross-check:

• Price: $137.10 (P/E ~154x trailing, mkt cap ~$330B). Next earnings: 2026-08-10.
• Recent headlines worth knowing: Q1 2026 beat on revenue and EPS; US Commercial slightly missed ($595M vs $605M); stock fell ~5% after-hours and is down ~23% YTD despite 85% revenue growth; Jefferies noted exceptional fundamentals but a “heroic durability assumption” required for the current multiple.
• Inconsistencies: Max’s target of $200 implies +46% upside from current $137.10. Stefan’s $207 peak reference on “his birthday 3 Nov” is consistent with PLTR’s documented all-time high in late 2024. No material inconsistencies with transcript claims.

$NVO (Novo Nordisk)

Convergence / divergence: Clear disagreement. Max holds his 2016 position and believes the stock can double over coming years, citing recurring diabetes revenue and GLP-1 market leadership. Stefan dismisses it as rubbish and urges listeners to sell, noting the stock has been flat over a decade while the Nasdaq 100 returned ~113% over 5 years.

Speaker calls:

• Max (bullish, long-term, entry ~$29): Holding position; Wegovy pill was 95% above analyst expectations in Q1; 65% US GLP-1 market share (vs Eli Lilly); recurring diabetes revenue is a cash cow; believes the stock can double from current levels over coming years. Would consider adding more shares.
• Stefan (bearish): Calling it rubbish — down 43% from June 2024 peak, flat over 10 years vs Nasdaq 100 +113% over 5 years; negative full-year revenue guidance driven by US drug-pricing pressure; would sell and rotate into higher-conviction names.

Cross-check:

• Price: ~$46 (52-week range $35.12–$81.44; forward P/E ~11.8x; mkt cap ~$204B). Next earnings: 2026-08-05.
• Recent headlines worth knowing: Q1 2026 beat included a one-time $4.2B US 340B drug-pricing program gain; Wegovy pill nearly doubled analyst estimates in its first full US quarter ($355M vs ~$180M); first Ozempic generics approved in Canada; NICE recommended Wegovy on NHS; oral Wegovy now on Amazon same-day delivery.
• Inconsistencies: Max’s transcript claim of Wegovy pill “95% above expectations” is confirmed directionally (press reports nearly double estimates). Stefan’s 43% decline from June 2024 peak is confirmed (peak ~$81, current ~$46). No material fabrications found.

$AXON (Axon Enterprise)

Convergence / divergence: Both agree the AI-disruption-driven selloff is overdone for a company that is ~44% hardware. Max is a committed long-term holder planning to average down; Stefan sees it as an attractive entry but doesn’t have a strong directional call of his own.

Speaker calls:

• Max (bullish, long-term, entry ~$600): Will add more shares when liquidity allows; AI-disruption selloff is unwarranted for a hardware-software hybrid with a government moat; 30–32% full-year growth guidance raised above prior estimates; public safety is a structurally growing market.
• Stefan (neutral): Current valuation more attractive after ~30% decline from Trump-election spike; software disruption fear drove the selloff despite Axon being ~44% hardware; long-term public safety spending thesis intact.

Cross-check:

• Price: $385.86 as of 6 May 2026 (P/E ~55.6x normalised, mkt cap ~$31.1B). Next earnings: 2026-08-03.
• Recent headlines worth knowing: Q1 2026 ninth consecutive quarter of 30%+ revenue growth; counter-drone revenue more than tripled YoY (~500% booking growth); full-year guidance raised to 30–32%; stock surged 12%+ on earnings day; Bank of America maintained Buy.
• Inconsistencies: Max quoted price-at-recording as $403 vs $385.86 close on 6 May — minor gap consistent with recording two days later (8 May). Transcript cites counter-drone growth of “300%+”; press confirms revenue more than tripled and bookings ~500%, so transcript was a floor estimate. No material fabrications found.

Topics discussed

Q1 2026 Earnings Season Context

Summary: Max outlined three macro reasons why markets reached all-time highs despite geopolitical tensions: (1) a record sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit S&P 500 EPS growth with an 82% beat rate; (2) fading Iran-US escalation risk; (3) structural economic resilience, including a blowout US payrolls report of +115K vs 55K expected and a stable 4.3% unemployment rate.

Speaker views:

• Max: EPS growth is accelerating (15%+ YoY), hyperscaler capex is rising, and markets are correctly pricing in structural AI productivity gains driving margin expansion.
• Stefan: Agreed that markets have priced through the Iran conflict and tariff uncertainty, and that the current earnings season is exceptionally strong.

Potential impact: Continued strong earnings could sustain equity valuations even with elevated geopolitical risks; any escalation in the Strait of Hormuz or a surprise miss from Nvidia could reverse the rally.

Hyperscaler Capex and HBM Memory Co-Investment

Summary: Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta are collectively targeting over $700B in capex for 2026, with Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai citing compute as the only constraint on AI growth. New development: hyperscalers are directly co-investing in or pre-paying memory producers such as SK Hynix to accelerate HBM production and secure supply.

Speaker views:

• Max: Hyperscalers acting as infrastructure bankers — using cash reserves to fund fab capacity — secures exclusive HBM supply, reduces dependence on spot pricing, and binds physical production to their own AI roadmaps.
• Stefan: Companies all along the AI infrastructure value chain benefit from this ongoing investment cycle.

Potential impact: SK Hynix, Micron, and other HBM suppliers gain accelerated funding; hyperscalers secure strategic supply advantages in a chronically undersupplied HBM market.

Kevin Warsh (incoming Fed Chair) and AI Deflation Thesis

Summary: Jerome Powell is departing after more than 8 years; incoming Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh appeared before Congress. His core thesis is that AI will produce a deflationary shock through cost savings and productivity gains, justifying lower interest rates even while maintaining balance-sheet runoff.

Speaker views:

• Stefan: Warsh’s AI-deflation thesis is theater — he was selected because he will do what Trump wants (rate cuts), and his stated independence is meaningless; Trump selects yes-men and anyone who refused would have been fired.
• Max: Warsh’s deflation argument has real substance: AI-driven cost reductions are already showing up in corporate margins; S&P 500 profit growth outpacing revenue growth proves the point.

Potential impact: If Warsh delivers rate cuts citing AI deflation, it would be a significant tailwind for growth equities; markets will watch his first decisions closely to judge actual independence from executive influence.

AMD Portfolio Performance

Summary: Both hosts noted AMD as a long-standing conviction call paying off: Stefan noted AMD is 42% of his portfolio with an entry from 2011 (approaching a 200-bagger), and Max cited AMD up roughly 90% on a month basis. A planned deeper AMD analysis segment was deferred to the next episode due to time constraints.

Speaker views:

• Stefan: AMD has been a roughly 190-bagger from his 2011 entry; the podcast has been consistently bullish on AMD throughout regardless of short-term volatility.
• Max: AMD and Palantir are the two stocks where both hosts have always been aligned; both have delivered exceptional returns since the podcast started.