Summary
| Ticker | Company | Speakers (sentiment) | Entry | Target | Current | Δ to target | Next earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $NBIS | Nebius Group | Max (bullish, long-term); Stefan (bullish, exited) | ~$30 (Max, initial) | $300 | $213.29 | +41% | ~Aug 2026 |
| $NU | Nu Holdings | Max (cautiously bullish, long-term); Stefan (bearish, exited) | ~$12 (Max) | — | $15.11 | — | 2026-08-13 |
| $TTWO | Take-Two Interactive | Stefan (speculative bullish, medium-term); Max (neutral) | — | — | $227.70 | — | 2026-08-10 |
Theses (episode spine)
- Nebius (NBIS) delivered extraordinary Q1 2026 results: group revenue $399M (+684% YoY), AI Cloud revenue $390M (+841% YoY), annualised run-rate $1.92B vs. $1.81B expected, adjusted EBITDA margin 45% on core business vs. 23% expected — a massive beat across all metrics.
- Nebius is 100% capacity-utilised; deferred revenue (contracted but not yet delivered) jumped from $1.58B to $4.78B YoY, signalling strong forward visibility; Microsoft deal tranches come online in Q3/Q4, making full-year $7–9B ARR guidance look realistic.
- Max holds Nebius with a personal target of $300 over the next 1.5 years; he will not sell at $220 but would add on a 10–15% pullback. Stefan had already exited via call options (doubled in ~4 months) shortly before earnings.
- Nu Holdings (Nubank, NU) Q1 2026: 135.2M customers (+14% YoY), net income $871M missed $928M consensus by 6.1%; cost of risk rose to 19% vs. 15% expected — the primary reason for an ~8% sell-off on earnings day. Max is cautiously positive long-term; Stefan is out.
- Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) Q1 earnings (21 May) are viewed as secondary; the key event is confirmation of GTA 6 release on 19 Nov 2026 and initial revenue projections.
- US 30-year Treasury yield crossed 5% for the first time since August 2007; 10-year is above 4%. April CPI rose to 3.8% (highest since early 2023), with energy costs from the Iran/Strait of Hormuz conflict accounting for over 40% of the increase.
- New Fed chair Kevin Wash (Trump-appointed) faces a structurally worse inflation environment than when named; Max and Stefan expect no cuts and possibly hikes if CPI clears 4% in May.
- Stefan believes the Russia-Ukraine war is approaching an end as Ukrainian drones now strike targets beyond the Ural Mountains; a ceasefire could restore cheap Russian energy imports to Europe.
- Trump visited Beijing with 17 US CEOs but reached no concrete agreements; symbolic bilateral trade/investment boards announced.
- The Iran standoff continues — Stefan uses a “game of chicken” analogy; neither side has blinked. Saudi Arabia is routing oil via trucks through Oman to bypass the blocked Strait of Hormuz.
$NBIS (Nebius Group)
| Speaker | Sentiment | Timeframe | Entry | Target | At recording | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max | Bullish | Long-term | ~$30 (initial; stock now ~$220) | $300 | $220 | Will not sell; would add on 10–15% pullback |
| Stefan | Bullish (exited) | Medium-term | — | — | $220 | Bought call options Jan 2026, doubled in ~4 months, sold just before earnings |
Convergence / divergence: Both speakers are bullish on Nebius fundamentals and the AI data-centre thesis. Max remains a long-term holder targeting $300; Stefan took profits on a medium-term options trade and exited before the post-earnings 23% surge.
Speaker calls:
- Max (bullish, long-term, target $300): Nebius is a European AI champion founded by former Yandex founders; now a $56B market-cap full-stack AI cloud provider domiciled in the Netherlands. Q1 results were exceptional across the board. Microsoft deal tranches (in Elma and Missouri data centres) come online in Q3/Q4, making the $7–9B ARR full-year guidance realistic. EBITDA margin expanded from 24% to 45% QoQ on core business but management guided for a Q2 dip as new sales teams and acquisitions add costs. Capex increase is volume-driven (components for 2026 data-centre builds were purchased in 2025 ahead of inflation). Cash position $9.3B. Will not sell; would add on a 10–15% pullback.
- Stefan (bullish, exited): Originally dismissed as a “Pommesbude” (volatile micro-cap) at first mention when market cap was €5–6B. Now $56B. Entered via call options in January 2026, doubled in approximately four months, sold last week — slightly early, missing the post-earnings pop. Confirms the Q1 results as outstanding.
Cross-check:
- Price: $213.29 (P/E ~63–72 TTM, market cap $54B). Next earnings: ~August 2026 (Q2 2026 results).
- Recent headlines worth knowing: Q1 2026 revenue $399M beat; stock surged ~23% post-earnings; $2.6B 10-year fuel cell deal with Bloom Energy announced; TD Cowen and Bank of America named NBIS a top pick; YTD gain ~163% as of May 2026.
- Inconsistencies: Max cited $220 at recording (16 May); current price $213 is broadly consistent. The full-year $7–9B ARR guidance is the company’s own figure, not an independent Max thesis — the episode is accurate in attributing it to management. The post-earnings surge Max missed has since partially retraced.
$NU (Nu Holdings / Nubank)
| Speaker | Sentiment | Timeframe | Entry | Target | At recording | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max | Cautiously bullish | Long-term | ~$12 | — | ~$12 | Would only add at $10; analyst consensus $18.46 |
| Stefan | Bearish / exited | — | — | — | ~$12 | Sold Dec 2024; will not re-enter |
Convergence / divergence: Both agree cost-of-risk deterioration (19% vs. 15% expected) is the key concern driving the sell-off. Stefan is firmly out; Max is holding but not adding. They agree the long-term LatAm banking story has merit but differ on near-term risk appetite.
Speaker calls:
- Max (cautiously bullish, long-term): Nubank is a Brazilian neobank (Stefan describes it as “a mix of N26, Trade Republic, Check24, and a mobile phone provider”). Q1 customers first crossed 135M (+14% YoY). Net income $871M missed $928M consensus; market fell ~8% on earnings day driven by cost of risk rising to 19% vs. 15% expected, with more customers entering late-stage delinquency. On the positive side: Mexico reached breakeven for the first time; Nubank is now the third-largest financial institution in Mexico; Brazil has 115M customers (largest private financial institution). Max is at ~$12 entry, barely breakeven; would add only at $10. Analyst consensus target $18.46, implying ~50% upside at time of recording.
- Stefan (bearish, exited): Sold in December 2024 citing Brazil’s hard-left government, money-printing, and pressure on the banking sector. Stock is -7% on a 1-year basis in USD; down ~35% from its January 2026 high of $18.76. Will not re-enter. Notes Warren Buffett also sold his pre-IPO position.
Cross-check:
- Price: $15.11 (P/E 19.6 TTM, forward PE 16.4, market cap $61.9B). Next earnings: 2026-08-13.
- Recent headlines worth knowing: Q1 2026 revenue crossed $5B for the first time; NII record $3.25B; credit portfolio $37.2B (+40% YoY FX-neutral); cost of risk elevated; Mexico breakeven achieved; EPS missed consensus.
- Inconsistencies: Max cited ~$12 at recording; current price $15.11 means Max is now up ~26% from his entry, not “barely breakeven.” The ~8% earnings-day sell-off appears to have reversed significantly since the episode was recorded.
$TTWO (Take-Two Interactive)
| Speaker | Sentiment | Timeframe | Entry | Target | At recording | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefan | Speculative bullish | Medium-term | — | — | — | Thesis is GTA 6 release date (19 Nov 2026) confirmation |
| Max | Neutral | — | — | — | — | No personal position stated |
Convergence / divergence: Stefan is the primary advocate for TTWO as a GTA 6 event-driven trade; Max acknowledges the hype but does not express a position. The episode was recorded 5 days before the 21 May earnings.
Speaker calls:
- Stefan (speculative bullish, medium-term): TTWO earnings on 21 May are “irrelevant” — the only question is whether GTA 6 release date (19 Nov 2026) is confirmed and whether revenue projections are provided. GTA 6 will be the most-anticipated game in history; global marketing campaign starting summer 2026; Rockstar’s marketing spend will be the largest in the industry. Development cost exceeded the Burj Khalifa to build. Every past GTA player will likely buy it. The “hype is already priced in” counterargument is rejected.
- Max (neutral): Mentions GTA 6 history (played all titles since the top-down 1990s versions); does not state a personal investment position.
Cross-check:
- Price: $227.70 (P/E N/A — unprofitable on GAAP basis, market cap $44.1B). Next earnings: 2026-08-10.
- Recent headlines worth knowing: Q4 2026 earnings released 21 May — EPS $0.80 beat $0.58 estimate; revenue $1.58B slightly missed $1.60B estimate. GTA 6 confirmed for 19 Nov 2026. TD Cowen projects >40M units in first 12 months. Bank of America raised PT to $320. Stock rose post-earnings.
- Inconsistencies: Stefan’s central thesis — that confirmation of the GTA 6 release date was the key catalyst — was validated by the 21 May earnings call. The stock at $227.70 reflects the post-earnings move. Stefan’s bearish dismissal of “it’s already priced in” from the crowd was consistent with the bullish analyst consensus (BofA PT $320).
Topics discussed
US Bonds / FED — Rising Yields and Inflation Risk
Summary: The US 30-year Treasury yield crossed 5% (last seen August 2007, months before the financial crisis) and the 10-year is above 4%. The US debt-to-GDP ratio is now 100.2% vs. 60% in 2007, meaning ~20% of the US budget now goes to interest payments. April CPI came in at 3.8% (highest since early 2023), with energy costs accounting for over 40% of the increase — US gasoline rose 28.4% in April alone, directly linked to the Iran/Strait of Hormuz conflict. PPI rose 6% with energy up 7.8% MoM, signalling that CPI could exceed 4% in May. Markets are pricing a ~50% probability of a Fed rate hike by year-end. New Fed chair Kevin Wash (Trump-appointed) wanted to cut rates but faces a structurally worse inflation environment than anticipated when he was named.
Speaker views:
- Max: Energy costs from the Iran conflict will keep inflation elevated, forcing Wash to hike even if that conflicts with Trump’s wishes. A rate-hike cycle is bearish for equities, gold, and Bitcoin. He remains long oil.
- Stefan: Wash is a Trump proxy but the data will constrain him — nine FOMC members vote, not just the chair. If CPI clears 4%, rate cuts are impossible. He views Trump’s Iran situation as a “game of chicken” that is dragging on and fuelling inflation.
Potential impact: A Fed rate hike cycle would raise discount rates, compress equity multiples (especially growth/AI), and increase the cost of servicing US debt. Higher long yields are also a headwind for mortgage markets and corporate borrowing costs.
Iran / US Conflict and the Strait of Hormuz
Summary: The US operation against Iran has not resolved. Iran refuses to back down, is developing nuclear capability, and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. China allowed some Iranian oil tankers through as a goodwill signal during Trump’s Beijing visit. Saudi Arabia is routing oil via approximately 3,000 trucks per day through Oman to bypass the Strait. Oil prices have risen over 60% from their late-February low.
Speaker views:
- Stefan: Uses a “game of chicken” analogy — neither Trump nor Iran will blink first. Trump declared rhetorical victory but the standoff continues. The longer it drags, the worse for global inflation and US fiscal sustainability.
- Max: Remains long oil over a “certain period” due to sustained high energy costs. Sees the conflict as the primary driver of inflation globally.
Potential impact: Continued blockade keeps energy prices elevated globally, sustaining inflation and constraining monetary policy in the US and Europe. A resolution could sharply reduce oil prices.
Russia-Ukraine War — Approaching an End?
Summary: Ukrainian drones have now struck targets beyond the Ural Mountains for the first time (a historic boundary considered “safe” throughout World War II). Refineries and infrastructure are being struck repeatedly. Russia is losing approximately 30,000 soldiers per month and gaining no territory. Putin shut down Moscow internet. Stefan believes a ceasefire is coming and would be followed by resumed cheap Russian energy imports into Germany and Europe, benefiting German and European equities.
Speaker views:
- Stefan: The war cannot last much longer. Ukraine has become a world-class drone warfare expert and has exported this expertise to allies in the Middle East. A ceasefire would restore cheap Russian energy imports and strongly benefit European industry.
- Max: Agrees the war is approaching an end. Ukraine’s drone capabilities have grown to the point where Russian cities are now vulnerable, which is weakening Putin’s domestic support and will ultimately force him toward a deal.
Potential impact: A Russia-Ukraine ceasefire would sharply lower European energy costs, reduce manufacturing cost bases for German and European companies, and potentially allow reintegration of Russian energy exports into European supply chains.
US-China Relations — Trump Beijing Visit
Summary: Trump visited Beijing with 17 US CEOs (including Tim Cook, Jensen Huang, Larry Fink, and Elon Musk) to discuss investment flows and market access. New bilateral Trade and Investment Boards were announced as institutional channels for ongoing dialogue. No concrete agreements were reached on tariffs (only a “framework”). China has leverage because Trump needs Chinese investment into the US to claim economic success.
Speaker views:
- Max: Symbolically important but substantively empty for now; the new boards could become meaningful dialogue channels. The visit signals both sides want to de-escalate post-Liberation Day tensions.
- Stefan: Trump is a business-first actor who needs China to invest in the US. China knows this and is not in a rush to concede on tariffs.
Potential impact: No immediate market impact; longer-term benefit if bilateral boards reduce trade friction and restore some supply chain normalcy for US companies dependent on China market access.