#146 Nvidia, Hims & Hers, Take Two / GTA 6, Duolingo, Thyssen, BASF

Summary

Theses (episode spine)

• Stefan sold a ThyssenKrupp options warrant after a 101% gain in 7 weeks and a BASF warrant earlier in the year after a 105% gain — both profited from the Iran war’s disruption of steel and chemical supply chains, not the original Friedenswette thesis.
• Take-Two confirmed GTA 6 remains on track for 19 November 2026 release; Stefan sees three near-term catalysts — a third trailer, opening of pre-orders with premium editions, and the start of the global marketing phase — and views $227 as still a buying opportunity toward his target of $264–300 (Stefan: bullish, in via options; Max: not invested, sees GTA 6 as too cyclical and short-cycle for his long-term 10x portfolio strategy).
• Nvidia posted its 14th consecutive quarter of revenue growth (Q1 FY2027: +85% YoY to $81.6B), free cash flow of $48.6B (+86%), and announced an $80B additional buyback; Max calls the valuation (27x FCF) fair but not cheap and maintains a small existing position without adding; Stefan frames it as a hold — sell-the-news after a 43% rally from the March low.
• Max argues the AI trade is sustained by three structural drivers: AI scaling laws requiring ever more compute, demand growing faster than physical supply (evidenced by old A100 prices rising 15–20%), and new end-use cases (AI agents, robotics) not yet in the price.
• Hims & Hers reported an optically weak Q1 (revenue +4% to $608M, net loss of $92M vs. $50M profit a year ago), but Max attributes ~$100M of the swing to one-off items — restructuring, the Novo Nordisk lawsuit settlement, and M&A costs from five acquisitions; he sees the Novo partnership as a strategic turning point and views the stock as a near-tenbagger candidate to 2030.
• Stefan holds a Hims options warrant expiring December 2027 and notes extreme volatility (-59% in 7 weeks, then +114% recovery) — emphasises this is a speculative position only suitable for investors who can stomach large drawdowns.
• Duolingo reported Q1 revenue +27% to $292M, free cash flow margin of 37%, and daily active users +21% vs monthly active users +6% — showing power-user deepening; Max holds and accumulates, sees a 2030 tenbagger from ~$145 average cost; Stefan is not invested, sees the AI disruption risk as too uncertain.
• Max frames Duolingo’s moat as platform expansion (now the second-largest chess app globally within 9 months) and a proprietary 9-year longitudinal patient dataset at Hims, arguing both companies are harder to replicate than Wall Street gives credit for.
• Stefan reports he will this week buy two new options warrants for ~10,000 EUR each in companies he has not previously held — details reserved for paid Patreon subscribers.

$TTWO (Take-Two Interactive)

Convergence / divergence: Stefan is actively long via options and sees a clear near-term catalyst chain; Max acknowledges the short-term GTA 6 trade makes sense but does not hold because the long-term compounding case is absent.

Speaker calls:

• Stefan (bullish, short-term, target $264–300): GTA 6 release confirmed for 19 November 2026 with no further delays; three upcoming catalysts (third trailer, pre-order launch, global marketing phase beginning ~July) should drive the stock from $227 back through the all-time high of $264 and on to $300; Stefan has ~$54,000 in options warrants expiring January 2027 and will not add more but views $227 as still buyable.
• Max (neutral): Does not hold Take-Two because the gaming sector’s cyclicality and dependence on a few titles do not fit his long-term 5–10x portfolio strategy, though he acknowledges the short-term GTA 6 catalyst is real.

Cross-check:

• Price: ~$224.60 (P/E: trailing losses; forward ~27.9x; mkt cap $41.6B). Next earnings: 2026-08-10 (est.).
• Recent headlines worth knowing: Q1 FY2027 net bookings $1.58B above estimates; GTA 6 confirmed for 19 Nov 2026; FY2027 guidance $8.0–8.2B slightly below some sell-side estimates (~$8.8–9B), contributing to post-earnings sell-off; Wells Fargo, BMO, Benchmark all reiterated Buy; Bank of America target $320.
• Inconsistencies: Stefan quoted $227 at recording — consistent with current ~$225. His all-time high reference of $264 is consistent with data. The Wall Street consensus he cited ($287) is slightly below the current broader consensus of ~$300.

$NVDA (Nvidia)

Convergence / divergence: Both hosts agree this is a hold, not a new buy, at the current ~$215 level. Max is more structurally bullish on AI and sees the valuation as fair; Stefan focuses on the near-term sell-the-news dynamic.

Speaker calls:

• Max (neutral, long-term hold): Maintains a small existing position; calls the valuation fair at 27x FCF but not cheap; would not initiate or add at current levels; sees the AI structural bull case intact — no bubble, demand is real and supply is constrained.
• Stefan (neutral, short-term): Holds AMD rather than Nvidia; the post-earnings pullback (~9% from all-time high) is a sell-the-news event after a 43% rally from the March low; suggests starting with a small first tranche if one wants to enter.

Cross-check:

• Price: ~$212.49 (P/E: 32.3x trailing, 21.2x forward; mkt cap $5.19T). Next earnings: 2026-08-26 (est.).
• Recent headlines worth knowing: Q1 FY2027 revenue +85% YoY to $81.6B (14th consecutive growth quarter); FCF $48.6B; $80B additional buyback authorised; Q2 guidance $91B (+12% QoQ); China export controls unresolved — Nvidia expects no China revenue; Blackwell Ultra claimed to cut token compute costs 60%. Wall Street consensus $296.81; 61 buy ratings, 0 sells.
• Inconsistencies: Stefan cited $215 at recording, current ~$212 is consistent. His cited consensus of $303 is close to the current aggregated ~$297. Deutsche Bank is the outlier with a Hold rating at a $255 target, exactly as described.

$HIMS (Hims & Hers Health)

Convergence / divergence: Max has a high-conviction fundamental long; Stefan has a shorter-term speculative options position. Both acknowledge the stock’s violent volatility. Stefan defers to Max on the fundamental analysis.

Speaker calls:

• Max (bullish, long-term, tenbagger target): Holds and is considering adding; Q1 net loss was inflated by ~$100M in one-off items (restructuring, Novo settlement, M&A costs); the Novo Nordisk lawsuit-to-partnership conversion and onboarding of Eli Lilly products are turning Hims into a universal healthcare platform with a proprietary 9-year patient dataset; stock trades at only 2.2x revenue and could reach ~5x current price on 2030 earnings guidance at current valuation multiples.
• Stefan (neutral, speculative): Holds options warrant expiring December 2027, currently about 8% in profit; warns that the stock fell 59% in under 7 weeks and then rose 114% — only suitable for investors who can tolerate extreme drawdowns.

Cross-check:

• Price: $26.15 (P/E: N/A — net loss Q1 2026; FCF positive at $53M; mkt cap $6.05B). Next earnings: 2026-08-10 (est.).
• Recent headlines worth knowing: Q1 2026 revenue $608M (below $616M estimate); Q2 guidance $680–700M (+25–28%); FY2026 EBITDA guidance cut by ~$25M due to M&A costs; Novo Nordisk partnership active since late March; Eli Lilly pharmacy integration underway; 125,000 Wegovy shipments in 6 weeks pre-earnings (record); Eucalyptus acquisition pending (could add ~$240M revenue). Wall Street: 2 sell, 11 hold, 4 buy; consensus target ~$29.
• Inconsistencies: Stefan cited $23 at recording; stock has since risen to $26.15 — directionally consistent with the post-earnings recovery. Max cited market cap of $5.5B; current $6.05B is consistent with the price appreciation since recording.

$DUOL (Duolingo)

Convergence / divergence: Max holds a high-conviction long with a 2030 horizon and is accumulating. Stefan is on the sidelines, concerned the AI threat to language-learning apps is unquantifiable. Both agree the stock is highly volatile and is down ~80% from its all-time high.

Speaker calls:

• Max (bullish, long-term, tenbagger target): Holds and is still accumulating; Q1 strong with revenue +27%, FCF margin 37%, DAUs +21%; 85% market share in language-learning apps and rapid expansion into chess and maths make it a durable platform; currently trading at 11–13x FCF with no debt and $1B cash — sees risk as limited on the downside and large on the upside by 2030.
• Stefan (bearish): Not invested; views the AI disruption risk (real-time translation and AI tutors) as too uncertain to bet on; notes the stock has an 83% max drawdown from its all-time high of ~$545 and Wall Street consensus skews toward hold (2 sell, 17 hold, 3 buy), with many ratings appearing stale.

Cross-check:

• Price: ~$109.49 (mkt cap $5.19B). Next earnings: 2026-08-12 (est.).
• Recent headlines worth knowing: Q1 2026 revenue $292M (+27%), DAUs +21%, MAUs +6%; FY2026 guidance: revenue +16%, gross margin expected to dip temporarily below 70% due to AI investment; $400M buyback programme (8% of market cap) authorised; became second-largest chess app globally within 9 months; Eli Lilly integration at Hims mentioned in parallel thesis. 52-week range $87.89–$540.30.
• Inconsistencies: Both Stefan ($106) and Max (~$108) cited prices at recording consistent with the current $109. The Wall Street consensus Stefan cited ($196 with stale ratings) contrasts with more recent individual analyst targets (Morgan Stanley $95 hold, Evercore $97 hold, JPMorgan $94 hold) — Stefan’s caveat about stale ratings is well-founded.

$TKA (ThyssenKrupp) — Closed position

Speaker calls:

• Stefan (closed position): Bought a plain vanilla options warrant on ThyssenKrupp on 1 April 2026 as a bet on falling energy costs if Middle East peace arrived; instead, Iranian bombardment of Middle Eastern steel mills created supply shortages that drove European steel prices higher; the warrant doubled in 7 weeks and was sold on 25 May 2026 (a German public holiday when the order executed automatically via limit). Stock rose 57% from 30 March over the period.

Cross-check:

• Price: 11.60 EUR (mkt cap ~7.2B EUR). Next earnings: not tracked.
• Recent headlines worth knowing: ThyssenKrupp shares spiked on Middle East supply disruptions benefiting European steel; 52-week range 7.12–13.35 EUR; analyst consensus target ~12.61 EUR.
• Inconsistencies: Stefan’s 57% stock gain from 30 March is consistent with the 52-week range (low ~7.12, high ~13.35). No material inconsistencies.

$BAS (BASF) — Closed position

Speaker calls:

• Stefan (closed position): Bought a BASF options warrant in 2025 as a Friedenswette — a bet that Russia-Ukraine peace would lower energy costs and benefit energy-intensive chemical producers. The peace thesis did not materialise; instead, Iranian bombardment of chemical plants created a supply shortfall that allowed BASF to raise prices, pushing the stock to a 52-week high of ~55 EUR. Stefan sold at 51–52 EUR in late March 2026 after +105%.

Cross-check:

• Price: ~51.03 EUR (mkt cap ~44.7B EUR). Next earnings: not tracked.
• Recent headlines worth knowing: BASF reached 52-week high of 55.05 EUR in 2026; stock has since eased to ~51 EUR. Year-to-date +21% as Stefan noted; 5-year performance remains negative.
• Inconsistencies: Stefan’s stated exit price of 51–52 EUR and peak reference of ~55 EUR both match the 52-week high of 55.05 EUR and current price of ~51 EUR. No material inconsistencies.

Topics discussed

Iran War and European Industrial Supply Chains

Summary: Stefan recounts how the Iran war unexpectedly benefited both his ThyssenKrupp and BASF options warrants. Iranian bombardment of Middle Eastern steel mills and chemical plants created supply shortages that allowed European producers to raise prices and see their stocks surge. ThyssenKrupp rose 57% in 7 weeks; BASF reached a 52-week high around 55 EUR.

Speaker views:

• Stefan: The Iran war disrupted his original thesis (a peace/energy-cost bet) but generated larger profits than anticipated through the supply-shock channel; he sold both positions after doubling his money and is now looking for two new options warrants this week.

GTA 6 Release Timeline and Marketing Catalysts

Summary: Take-Two confirmed in its Q1 FY2027 earnings call (21 May 2026) that GTA 6 will not be delayed again and remains on track for 19 November 2026. Stefan identifies three near-term price catalysts: a third trailer, the launch of pre-orders with multiple premium editions, and the start of the global marketing campaign which he predicts will begin in July based on precedent from GTA V and Red Dead Redemption 2 (four months before release).

Speaker views:

• Stefan: Believes Wall Street analysts are justified in their optimism ($300 consensus, Bank of America $320) and sees $227 as an attractive entry before the marketing machine kicks in; he already has ~$54,000 in options warrants expiring January 2027 and will not add more but encourages direct stock ownership for those who want less risk.
• Max: Acknowledges the short-term GTA 6 catalyst is real but does not hold Take-Two because gaming sector cyclicality and single-title dependence do not fit his 5–10 year compounding framework.

Potential impact: Stefan highlights that pre-order announcements and record-breaking click counts on marketing materials historically have driven the stock higher in the months before release.

AI Scaling Laws and the ‘AI Bubble’ Debate

Summary: Max argues at length that the AI investment cycle is fundamentally different from a speculative bubble. He cites three structural pillars: (1) AI scaling laws mean larger models require exponentially more compute; (2) demand is growing far faster than physical supply, evidenced by old A100 GPU rental prices rising 15–20%; (3) new end-use cases (AI agents, robotics, physical AI) are still not priced in.

Speaker views:

• Max: People calling this a bubble miss that every chip installed is immediately utilised, Anthropic’s revenue nearly tripled in under 6 months (from ~$9B annualised end-2025 to ~$30B by April), tokens are now profitable to generate, and robotics demand will add yet another demand layer — no structural break in the underlying drivers is visible.
• Stefan: Agrees with Max and adds that when Anthropic and OpenAI eventually IPO, the new capital will flow straight back into Nvidia and AMD chips, sustaining the trade.

Potential impact: Max argues the implication is that Nvidia and the broader AI supply chain will continue to see strong demand on a multi-year horizon; the supply-demand imbalance extends to older-generation chips, with A100 GPU rental prices rising 15–20%.

Hims & Hers: Novo Nordisk Partnership and Platform Evolution

Summary: Hims turned a Novo Nordisk lawsuit into a commercial partnership and is now onboarding Eli Lilly’s online pharmacy into its platform. Max argues the company is transitioning from a direct-to-consumer drug seller into a universal health platform with proprietary patient data, making it structurally defensible. The company shipped 125,000 Wegovy doses in the six weeks before earnings, a new record.

Speaker views:

• Max: Sees the Novo partnership and Eli Lilly integration as proof of the platform thesis; argues the company’s 9-year longitudinal patient dataset is a competitive moat better than any generic AI model; plans to continue accumulating toward a 2030 tenbagger target.
• Stefan: Holds speculative options as a shorter-term trade; warns that the stock’s volatility (-59% in 7 weeks, +114% recovery) demands nerves of steel and is not suitable for conservative investors.

Potential impact: Max notes the Eucalyptus acquisition (not yet included in guidance) could add ~$240M in revenue; if the platform thesis plays out, 2030 earnings could make the current 2.2x revenue valuation appear extremely cheap.