#151 McDonald's, Cerebras, SpaceX, Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, EchoStar, Iran, Öl

Summary

Theses (episode spine)

• US stocks (Nasdaq Composite +2.43%, Russell 2000 +1.21%, S&P 500 +1%) hit fresh highs last week on the diplomatic breakthrough between the US and Iran (memorandum of understanding, talks near Lausanne), even as rate-hike odds got priced in more aggressively.
• New Fed Chair Kevin Wash held rates at 3.5-3.75% for a 4th straight meeting but signaled a much more hawkish, less communicative stance than Jerome Powell; the dot plot showed 9 of 18 members expecting at least one more hike this year, moving market pricing for a hike from December to October (Max: this points to “stagflation” risk — weaker growth outlook plus a raised PCE/core PCE outlook).
• Both hosts agree oil is the primary inflation driver right now and expect it to keep falling back toward $65-70 as supply reroutes around the Strait of Hormuz, which should relieve pressure on both the Fed and ECB (Max: ECB should look through the supply shock entirely since a rate hike can’t fix an energy supply shock).
• Stefan is sharply critical of the current US-Iran memorandum, calling it a “shitshow” compared to the multi-year Obama-era nuclear deal, and mocks Trump’s rhetoric and the Commerce Secretary’s “90 deals in 90 days” claim as failing to materialize.
• Max initiated a first tranche in Cerebras Systems at ~$205-209, viewing it as a long-term hold on the AI-infrastructure “second wave” shifting from training/GPU buildout to fast, low-latency inference, citing OpenAI and AWS Trainium partnerships as validation, but flags customer concentration risk (86% of last year’s revenue from Middle East clients G42 and MGX/MBSU) and stretched valuation (64x forward revenue) ahead of earnings.
• Stefan is bearish/uninterested in Cerebras and chip stocks generally, saying his portfolio is already ~48% AMD, and dismisses the ~$300 analyst price targets on Cerebras as conflicted since the rating banks (Citi, Barclays, UBS) were IPO underwriters paid by the company.
• Space-sector names (Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, EchoStar) sold off as capital rotated into the SpaceX IPO, which itself has fallen from its first-trade price to ~$154 (only ~3% above the $135 IPO price); both hosts hold small “souvenir” SpaceX positions (Max ~$3,000/0.5% of portfolio; Stefan ~$6,500/0.6% of portfolio) and Max wants to add more around $70-80.
• Max is bullish on Rocket Lab (down 26% in a month from a ~$150 high to ~$100, but +233% over one year) citing a record $2.2B backlog, strong Q1 results, Neutron/satellite progress, and imminent Nasdaq-100 inclusion driving ETF-related demand.
• Max sees AST SpaceMobile (down 31% in a month to ~$73, +~60% over one year) as attractive at current levels for a first or add-on tranche, citing successful Block 2 Bluebird satellite launches and partnerships with AT&T, Verizon and Vodafone as a complementary (not competing) direct-to-cell offering versus Starlink.
• Both hosts are more cautious on EchoStar, now essentially a SpaceX proxy trading at a holding discount to its SpaceX stake but burdened by high debt and a struggling legacy telecom business (Stefan sold his Jan/Feb call option, now down ~60%; Max holds at a loss versus his $109 cost basis and would prioritize adding to Rocket Lab or AST SpaceMobile instead).
• Stefan bought a McDonald’s call option (~EUR8,220, ~0.8% of portfolio) on 15 June, framing MCD as an indirect “Iran-war loser” whose stock fell 21% from its 52-week high of $341 to a 52-week low of $270 due to oil-driven costs, and expects a rebound if the Iran conflict and Russia-Ukraine war both de-escalate; Max also likes MCD long-term but would only buy around $250.

$CBRS (Cerebras Systems)

Convergence / divergence: Both hosts see chip/AI-infrastructure exposure as already priced richly, but Max is willing to start a small position on the inference-demand thesis while Stefan declines outright, citing concentration risk in his own book rather than a view on Cerebras specifically.

Speaker calls:

• Max (bullish, long-term): opened a first, tiny (~$3,000, under 0.5% of portfolio) tranche in Cerebras as a long-term hold on its wafer-scale inference technology and OpenAI/AWS validation, planning to add more if upcoming earnings confirm the thesis and the stock sells off, but flags 64x forward-revenue valuation and Middle East customer concentration (86% of revenue from G42 and MGX/MBSU) as key risks.
• Stefan (bearish): will not buy Cerebras or any other chip stock since his portfolio is already ~48% AMD, and dismisses the ~$300 analyst consensus price target as conflicted because lead IPO underwriters (Citigroup, Barclays, UBS) issued the ratings.

Cross-check:

• Price: $204.86 (P/E ~177-849x TTM depending on source, mkt cap $46.4B). Next earnings: N/A (recently IPO’d, no confirmed date found).
• Recent headlines worth knowing: IPO’d May 14 2026 at $185/share, opened at $385 (+108%), closed day one near $311 valuing the company at $66B; stock has since slid from that debut pop to around $205.
• Inconsistencies: stock is well below its IPO-day close ($311) and 52-week high ($386.34), suggesting the post-IPO euphoria has partly unwound since the episode aired.

$SPCX (SpaceX)

Convergence / divergence: Both hosts frame their SpaceX stakes as small souvenir positions rather than conviction bets; Max is the more active of the two, hoping to add materially if the price falls back toward $70-80, while Stefan says he’d tolerate even a 50% drawdown without concern given the position’s immateriality.

Speaker calls:

• Max (bullish, long-term, add-on trigger $70-80): holds a small SpaceX position (~$3,000, ~0.5% of portfolio) as a souvenir from the IPO and wants to become a larger investor once the price pulls back toward $70-80.
• Stefan (neutral): holds his small (~0.6% of portfolio) SpaceX IPO allocation purely as a souvenir/fun position and says he’d be unbothered even if it fell another 50% to $50, since the size is immaterial to his portfolio.

Cross-check:

• Price: $162.00 (mkt cap $2.13T, P/E not found). Next earnings: N/A (recently IPO’d, no confirmed date found).
• Recent headlines worth knowing: IPO’d June 12 2026 at $135/share raising ~$75B; valuation briefly spiked above $2.6T before settling; average 12-month analyst target ~$188.57 (range $62-$310).
• Inconsistencies: stock is down from its post-IPO high (52-week range $135-$225.64); at the time of recording it was already described as only ~3% above IPO price, and it remains well off its high today.

$RKLB (Rocket Lab)

Convergence / divergence: Only Max discussed Rocket Lab specifically; Stefan’s remarks were limited to the broader space-sector rotation topic (see Topics section) rather than a distinct call on this name.

Speaker calls:

• Max (bullish): views Rocket Lab’s pullback as healthy given a record $2.2B backlog, strong Q1 results, Neutron rocket/satellite progress, and imminent Nasdaq-100 inclusion driving ETF demand, and considers it one of the leading space alternatives to SpaceX at current levels.

Cross-check:

• Price: $100.21 (P/E -304, unprofitable; mkt cap $60.1B). Next earnings: 2026-08-06.
• Recent headlines worth knowing: stock trading near its recent $97.93-$106.99 range, continuing to be valued on launch cadence and Neutron progress rather than earnings.
• Inconsistencies: none flagged.

$ASTS (AST SpaceMobile)

Convergence / divergence: Only Max commented on AST SpaceMobile directly; Stefan did not give a specific view on this name.

Speaker calls:

• Max (bullish): sees AST SpaceMobile as attractive for a first tranche or to average down after successful Block 2 Bluebird satellite launches and its complementary (non-competing) direct-to-cell partnerships with AT&T, Verizon and Vodafone, though he flags ongoing capital needs and regulatory uncertainty as risks.

Cross-check:

• Price: $85.13 (mkt cap $33.0B, unprofitable). Next earnings: 2026-08-17 (one source cites 2026-08-10).
• Recent headlines worth knowing: 52-week range $36.08-$133.86, reflecting large volatility around satellite-direct-to-cell rollout news.
• Inconsistencies: none flagged.

$SATS (EchoStar)

Convergence / divergence: Both hosts have grown more cautious on EchoStar, framing it as a SpaceX proxy the market refuses to value as such; Max still holds (underwater) but is deprioritizing it versus Rocket Lab/AST SpaceMobile, while Stefan has already sold his position at a loss.

Speaker calls:

• Max (neutral): still holds EchoStar (underwater versus his $109 cost basis) and calls it a de facto SpaceX proxy trading at a holding discount to its stake, but would prioritize adding to Rocket Lab or AST SpaceMobile over EchoStar given its high debt and struggling legacy telecom business.
• Stefan (bearish): bought an EchoStar call option in Jan/Feb betting on its SpaceX stake but it’s now down ~60%; he plans to exit since the market treats EchoStar as a struggling legacy telecom rather than valuing the SpaceX holding, despite positive analyst ratings after the SpaceX IPO.

Cross-check:

• Price: $101.49 (mkt cap $29.4B, near-breakeven; Q1 2026 EPS -$0.51). Next earnings: 2026-07-31.
• Recent headlines worth knowing: spectrum sale to AT&T and SpaceX seen as de-risking the balance sheet; average analyst target $128.80.
• Inconsistencies: none flagged.

$MCD (McDonald’s)

Convergence / divergence: Both hosts are constructive on McDonald’s long-term, but via different routes — Stefan already bought a call option as a tactical Iran/oil-de-escalation trade, while Max prefers to wait for a lower entry (~$250) before committing new capital to the franchise-model thesis.

Speaker calls:

• Stefan (bullish, entry ~$270 via call option): bought an MCD call option, framing it as an indirect Iran-war loser (down 21% from its $341 high to a $270 52-week low on higher oil-driven energy, packaging and transport costs plus squeezed consumer spending) that should recover if the Iran conflict and Russia-Ukraine war both ease and oil prices fall; he plans to add another ~EUR8,000 tranche if the position drops another 50-70%.
• Max (bullish, long-term, target entry $250): likes McDonald’s long-term for its franchise/real-estate business model (only ~5-10% company-operated restaurants) and resilience during economic downturns, but says he would only buy in around $250 rather than at the current 52-week low of $270.

Cross-check:

• Price: $279.70 (P/E 23.1x TTM / 21.2x forward, mkt cap $199.4B). Next earnings: 2026-07-29.
• Recent headlines worth knowing: analyst consensus rating Buy with 12-month target $330.47, despite declining U.S. traffic and margin pressure.
• Inconsistencies: none flagged.

Topics discussed

New Fed Chair Kevin Wash’s first press conference

Summary: The Fed held rates at 3.5-3.75% for a fourth straight meeting under new chair Kevin Wash, whose statement and press conference were shorter and less forthcoming than Jerome Powell’s, with no forward guidance. Wash announced new internal working groups on the Fed balance sheet, AI’s productivity effects on inflation, and data quality, while reaffirming price stability (2% inflation) as the primary mandate over labor market concerns. The dot plot showed 9 of 18 members expecting at least one more hike this year, and markets moved to price a possible hike as early as October.

Speaker views:

• Max: noted the Fed’s outlook combined a lower growth forecast with a raised PCE/core PCE inflation forecast, describing this as pointing toward stagflation, and observed that 2-year Treasury yields rose sharply after the hawkish dot plot.
• Stefan: dismissed the press conference as boring (“so langweiligen Scheiß”), saying reading a summary is enough regardless of who delivers it.

Potential impact: The hawkish dot plot and repriced hike expectations (October vs. December) drove equity markets lower into the press conference and pushed both short- and long-term Treasury yields higher.

Iran-US memorandum of understanding and its effect on oil

Summary: The US and Iran agreed a memorandum of understanding and held direct bilateral talks near Lausanne, Switzerland, which markets celebrated; Brent crude fell about 9.5% on the week to roughly $75-78/barrel, back near pre-war (late February) levels. Both hosts attribute the oil price relief to rerouted supply (Saudi trucking via Oman, alternate pipelines, record Venezuelan imports to the US, and reduced Chinese demand) rather than the Strait of Hormuz reopening fully.

Speaker views:

• Max: argues the Strait of Hormuz’s ~20% share of global oil supply will likely fall toward 10% over time as Gulf states build alternative export routes, and expects Fed/ECB rate pressure to ease as oil-driven inflation subsides.
• Stefan: is skeptical of the deal’s substance, calling it a “two-month framework” shitshow compared to the multi-year Obama-era Iran nuclear deal, and mocks Trump’s rhetoric and the Commerce Secretary’s “90 deals in 90 days” promise.

Potential impact: Both hosts tie falling oil prices to easing inflation and reduced pressure on the Fed and ECB to hike further, and Stefan separately links a falling oil price (plus a potential end to the Russia-Ukraine war and lifted Russia sanctions) to a McDonald’s stock recovery.

ECB’s Christine Lagarde on rates and inflation

Summary: ECB President Christine Lagarde said she sees no need for more aggressive monetary tightening despite the geopolitical conflict and energy price shock, calling the inflation increase transitory and not seeing signs of a wage-price spiral, while noting future decisions remain data-dependent.

Speaker views:

• Stefan: criticized Lagarde personally (referencing her 2016 French conviction) but noted her message that Eurozone rates are not planned to rise further.
• Max: said he wasn’t surprised, since ~60% of the current inflation increase is driven by energy costs, and argued the ECB tends to react faster than other central banks in both directions but that hiking now would be a mistake since it cannot offset an oil supply shock; he expects at most one more hike, or a cut once energy prices fall.

Space-sector rotation into the SpaceX IPO

Summary: Smaller space names (Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, EchoStar) sold off in the weeks around and after the SpaceX IPO as investors rotated capital into SpaceX shares; SpaceX itself has since fallen (down 16.43% on the discussed day, ~7% the prior Friday) alongside a new bond issuance and an acquisition.

Speaker views:

• Max: attributes the rotation to profit-taking in smaller space names to fund SpaceX IPO purchases, and still sees Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile as attractive after their pullbacks, while being more cautious on EchoStar due to its debt and legacy telecom drag.
• Stefan: notes Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile and EchoStar are all down double digits over the past month, calls them highly volatile speculative names, and warns that being a small AI/space player next to Musk’s SpaceX empire is risky since market leadership in tech can flip quickly (citing OpenAI’s fading dominance as an example).

Potential impact: Both hosts note the rotation shows how new, large IPOs (like SpaceX) can drain liquidity from adjacent smaller sector names, and Stefan flags Nasdaq-100 inclusion for Rocket Lab as a technical demand catalyst via ETF buying.

Russia-Ukraine war potentially nearing an end

Summary: Stefan argues Russia is close to losing its “special operation” after four and a half years, citing daily attacks on Moscow and Ukraine’s development of long-range weapons that Western allies previously withheld out of fear of escalation, and suggests Russian elites no longer feel safe in Moscow.

Speaker views:

• Stefan: believes Ukraine may be gaining the upper hand and that if the war ends, Russia sanctions would be lifted, benefiting European energy costs (including a potential repair of the Nord Stream pipelines) and, by extension, McDonald’s cost base.

Potential impact: Stefan ties a potential end to the war and lifted Russia sanctions to lower European energy prices, which he expects would help energy-sensitive consumer names like McDonald’s.