#152 Micron, Nebius, Meta, Nasdaq 100 ETF, AI-Boom, Steuerreform, Gewerkschaften

Summary

Theses (episode spine)

• H1 2026 was a blowout for equities (S&P 500 +9.6%, Nasdaq +12.8%, Russell 2000 +22% — best H1 since 1991, SOX semiconductor index +80%), driven mainly by AI infrastructure buildout and memory-chip winners like Micron (+260% YTD) and SanDisk (+750% YTD).
• Micron: Max is bullish — best-ever beat-and-raise quarter, ~10x forward P/E on an annualized ~$120 EPS run-rate, 84.9% gross margin (guided to 86%), a $100B+ HBM total addressable market by 2027, and a looming buyback catalyst once Chips Act stock-buyback restrictions expire Dec 9, 2026; he thinks the stock can still double from current levels. Stefan is skeptical — cites a “value trap” argument that a ~14x forward P/E in a historically cyclical memory business often signals peak earnings, and says he would sell Micron here, not buy it.
• Nebius: Stefan already exited his Nebius stake earlier this year for roughly a 100% gain (bought near $100, sold near $150-160) and says he would not re-enter even though the stock later ran to about $270, given his broader near-term caution on AI stocks. Max is not worried by the Meta-driven selloff, pointing to a Nebius executive’s comment that every new cluster has 4-5 customers queued to take it.
• A Bloomberg report that Meta may resell excess compute capacity to outside customers triggered a broad Wednesday selloff in AI/semiconductor names (SanDisk -15%, Marvell -11%, Micron -9%, Corning -11.4%, Nebius -17%); Max calls it an overreaction to a “sell-side” style story rather than evidence the AI boom is ending, and says he used the dip to add to his Meta position, which is now the single largest individual stock holding in his portfolio.
• Sector rotation disagreement: Stefan believes AI/semiconductor winners (AMD, Micron, Nebius) may have peaked for now and expects rotation into software (Microsoft, Adobe, ServiceNow, IBM, Palantir), crypto and precious metals over the summer; Max disagrees and says he would only turn bearish if a hyperscaler cuts capex guidance, cancels chip orders, HBM oversupply appears, or GPU rental prices collapse — none of which has happened.
• AMD: Stefan holds roughly 1,000 shares (about half his portfolio) after trimming a much larger position built 2011-2015; despite a recent 11-16% pullback he remains a long-term holder while turning cautious on adding to AI winners near-term.
• Oil/Iran: both hosts note Brent/WTI have fallen back close to pre-war levels (~$72 Brent, ~$65-69 WTI); Stefan admits he was on the more panicked side and had expected Brent could spike toward $150, while Max says he called for a quicker resolution back toward $65 WTI and notes Brent actually peaked around $113.
• Fed’s Kevin Wash, speaking at the ECB’s Sintra forum, said prices remain too high and his primary goal is 2% price stability, but also said inflation has cooled markedly since his last press conference — a dovish signal that pushed the dollar down and lifted gold/silver and pulled down Treasury yields.
• German tax reform: hosts argue the government’s touted family tax relief (up to €600/year per family of four) is largely offset by simultaneous increases in health, care, unemployment and pension insurance contributions, and warn that a parliamentary proposal could end free spousal co-insurance in statutory health insurance for childless partners from 2027 (~€270/month), while a separate crypto tax overhaul (with a floated top rate of up to 47%) is expected to be announced in coming months.

$MU (Micron Technology)

Convergence / divergence: Sharp disagreement — Max sees a still-cheap AI-infrastructure winner with a looming buyback catalyst, while Stefan reads the same valuation as a classic cyclical-peak signal and would sell rather than buy.

Speaker calls:

• Max (bullish): says Micron just delivered its best-ever beat-and-raise quarter, trades at roughly 10x forward earnings with an 84.9% gross margin (guided to 86%), has a $100B+ HBM total addressable market by 2027, and could still double from current levels, helped by a buyback catalyst once Chips Act stock-buyback restrictions expire on December 9, 2026.
• Stefan (bearish): cites a cyclical “value trap” argument (via a Gemini Pro analysis) that Micron’s roughly 14x forward P/E likely signals peak earnings in a historically boom-bust memory cycle, and says he would sell Micron here rather than buy it.

Cross-check:

• Price: $976.63 (P/E 22.1x TTM, mkt cap $1.10T). Next earnings: 2026-09-22.
• Recent headlines worth knowing: 52-week range $103.38-$1,255.00, reflecting a massive re-rating over the past year on the memory/AI-storage demand cycle.
• Inconsistencies: stock is well off its 52-week high ($1,255), suggesting some pullback from the peak of the memory-cycle enthusiasm — worth weighing against Max’s “still cheap” framing.

$NBIS (Nebius Group)

Convergence / divergence: Max remains constructive on underlying demand despite the Meta-driven selloff, while Stefan has already banked his gain and is staying out given his broader rotation-out-of-AI call — a difference in current positioning rather than a dispute over Nebius’s near-term demand picture.

Speaker calls:

• Max (bullish): points to a Nebius VP’s comment that every new cluster online has 4-5 customers queued to take it, and says the Meta capacity-resale selloff does not change the underlying demand picture for Nebius.
• Stefan (neutral): already sold his Nebius stake earlier this year for roughly a 100% gain (bought near $100, sold near $150-160) and says he would not re-enter now, even though the stock later ran to about $270, given his broader call for near-term rotation out of AI stocks.

Cross-check:

• Price: $215.89 (unprofitable, EPS est -$0.73 next quarter; mkt cap $54.3B). Next earnings: 2026-08-06 (one source: 2026-08-05).
• Recent headlines worth knowing: launched AI Cloud 3.6 with the “Nebius Echo” AI agent; stock volatile after Meta announced plans to enter the cloud-infrastructure market, seen as new competition.
• Inconsistencies: Meta’s move into cloud infrastructure is a potential competitive threat to Nebius’s core GPU-cloud business — worth flagging against Max’s bullish demand thesis.

$META (Meta Platforms)

Convergence / divergence: Only Max gave a specific Meta call; Stefan’s comments on the capacity-resale story were about the broader selloff being overdone rather than a distinct Meta thesis.

Speaker calls:

• Max (bullish): called the Bloomberg report on Meta possibly reselling excess compute an overreaction to a classic “sell-side” style story, used the Wednesday selloff to add a tranche to his Meta position, and says it is now the single largest individual stock holding in his portfolio.

Cross-check:

• Price: $584.88 (P/E ~17.7-21.9x TTM depending on source, mkt cap $1.48T). Next earnings: 2026-07-28 (est).
• Recent headlines worth knowing: reportedly moving to enter the cloud-infrastructure market, competing with providers like Nebius; continues heavy AI/compute capex spending.
• Inconsistencies: none flagged.

$AMD (Advanced Micro Devices)

Convergence / divergence: Only Stefan gave a specific AMD call; his stance is long-term holder rather than active buyer, consistent with his broader “cautious on adding to AI winners near-term” rotation thesis for this episode.

Speaker calls:

• Stefan (bullish, long-term): holds roughly 1,000 AMD shares (about half his portfolio) after trimming a much larger stake bought between 2011 and 2015; despite a recent 11-16% pullback he is still holding long-term but is cautious about adding to AI/semiconductor winners near-term amid what he sees as a starting sector rotation.

Cross-check:

• Price: $519.50 (P/E ~169-180x TTM / ~62x forward, mkt cap $845.1B). Next earnings: 2026-08-04.
• Recent headlines worth knowing: hosting a major AI summit July 22-23, 2026, which could move sentiment ahead of earnings.
• Inconsistencies: very high trailing P/E versus much lower forward P/E implies the market is pricing in a large earnings ramp — worth noting since neither host cited a specific multiple for AMD.

$PLTR (Palantir Technologies)

Convergence / divergence: Only Stefan discussed Palantir directly in this episode.

Speaker calls:

• Stefan (bullish): holds Palantir as roughly 16-17% of his total portfolio and notes the stock rebounded about 20.5% in a week (from around $107 to about $130) right after hitting a 52-week low.

Cross-check:

• Price: $129.78 (P/E 145.7x TTM, mkt cap $309.7B). Next earnings: 2026-08-10.
• Recent headlines worth knowing: continues to trade at a steep premium multiple versus peers, reflecting AI/government-software growth expectations.
• Inconsistencies: none flagged.

Topics discussed

Meta capacity-reselling report sparks AI/semiconductor selloff

Summary: Bloomberg reported that Meta may sell excess compute capacity to external customers, which the market read as a sign of AI infrastructure overbuild; the news triggered a broad Wednesday selloff in AI-linked names (SanDisk -15%, Marvell -11%, Micron -9%, Corning -11.4%, Nebius -17%). Hosts reviewed past Zuckerberg comments (October and May) acknowledging Meta could resell overbuilt capacity, and discussed the structure of Meta’s roughly $27B “take-or-pay” compute contract with Nebius.

Speaker views:

• Stefan: calls it a classic “sell-side” style, clickbait-driven story that algorithms overreacted to, and says the selloff was clearly overdone.
• Max: argues the story mainly shows Meta arrived late to the AI cloud race rather than pointing to a broader capacity glut, since providers like Nebius have customers queued for any freed-up capacity, and used the dip to add to his own Meta position.

Potential impact: Both hosts say the selloff would only be validated if a hyperscaler actually cuts capex guidance, cancels chip orders, an HBM oversupply appears, or GPU rental prices collapse — none of which has happened yet.

Sector rotation debate: AI/semis versus software, crypto and precious metals

Summary: After a huge H1 2026 run in AI/semiconductor stocks (SOX +80%), the hosts debate whether a near-term top is forming, noting capital already rotating into software names (Microsoft, Adobe, ServiceNow, IBM, Palantir), crypto and gold/silver.

Speaker views:

• Stefan: believes AI/semiconductor winners like AMD, Micron and Nebius may have peaked for now and that money is rotating into software, crypto and precious metals over the summer.
• Max: disagrees, saying he would only turn bearish on the AI trade if a hyperscaler cuts capex, cancels orders, an HBM oversupply emerges, or GPU rental prices collapse.

Potential impact: Both agree the next 30-40 days of hyperscaler earnings (Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft) and their capex guidance will be the key signal for whether the AI trade resumes or the rotation continues.

Oil prices normalize after Iran conflict de-escalation

Summary: WTI/Brent oil prices have fallen back close to pre-war levels (roughly $65-69 WTI, ~$72 Brent) despite the earlier Iran conflict, helped by Chinese reserve releases, non-OPEC production increases (e.g. Saudi trucking build-out) and rising Venezuelan exports.

Speaker views:

• Stefan: admits he was on the more panicked side and had expected Brent could spike toward $150.
• Max: says he had called for a faster resolution and a return toward $65 WTI, noting Brent actually peaked around $113, well below the worst-case scenarios.

Potential impact: Lower energy costs feed into the upcoming June CPI print due in about two weeks, which the hosts will watch for signs of easing inflation.

Fed’s Kevin Wash at ECB Forum Sintra: price stability focus, inflation cooling

Summary: On a Sintra panel alongside ECB’s Lagarde, the Bank of England and Bank of Canada, new Fed voice Kevin Wash reiterated that prices remain too high and his primary goal is 2% price stability, while also noting inflation has cooled markedly since his last press conference — a dovish signal that pushed the dollar down and lifted gold and silver.

Speaker views:

• Max: argues AI will ultimately have a disinflationary effect over time by cutting labor and production input costs, agreeing directionally with Wash’s framing.

Potential impact: Markets read the inflation-cooling comment as reducing the odds of a rate hike, pulling down both 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields.

Memory chip shortage driving up consumer electronics prices

Summary: Rising memory chip prices from Micron and SK Hynix are pushing Apple, Lenovo, Microsoft and Dell to raise prices on iPads, MacBooks, Xbox and Surface devices, which the hosts flag as a visible inflationary pass-through of the AI-driven memory boom.

Speaker views:

• Max: says these price hikes are inflationary in the near term but expects AI to be net disinflationary longer-term by cutting other input costs.

Potential impact: Consumer electronics price increases show up as a component of near-term inflation prints even as AI-driven productivity gains could pull inflation down over the longer term.

Palantir CEO Alex Karp criticizes token-based LLM spending

Summary: Alex Karp argued many US companies are frustrated that they spend heavily on AI tokens without a clear return on investment, warned that using closed-model APIs risks leaking companies’ proprietary data and competitive edge to third parties, and pointed to competitive pressure from cheap Chinese open-weight models like DeepSeek.

Speaker views:

• Max: frames Karp’s comments as a deliberate strategic move to attack the large closed-model AI labs’ business model while positioning Palantir as the more secure, data-sovereign infrastructure partner for companies and governments.

German 2026 tax reform: family relief mostly offset, crypto tax overhaul looming

Summary: The German government announced a family tax relief plan (touted as saving a family of four up to €600/year) staggered through 2028, but the hosts argue rising health, care, unemployment and pension insurance contributions over the same period will cancel out most of the benefit. They also flag a parliamentary proposal that could end free spousal co-insurance in statutory health insurance for childless partners from 2027 (~€270/month), while spousal income-tax splitting itself looks set to remain. Separately, they expect a crypto capital-gains tax framework in the coming months, with options ranging from equity-like taxation (with a possible surcharge, up to a floated 47% top rate) to a real-estate-style holding-period model.

Speaker views:

• Stefan: calls the touted family savings (“about €12.50 per person per month”) trivial once inflation and rising social contributions are netted out, argues losing free family health co-insurance would cost families thousands of euros a year, and warns a crypto tax overhaul could take up to 47% of gains under one floated scenario.

Potential impact: Stefan speculates the ruling coalition could fracture after upcoming September state elections before these reforms are finalized in parliament.

German trade unions oppose stock-based pension while selling members pricier investment products

Summary: Stefan highlights that 9 of the 10 largest German unions publicly oppose an equity-based state pension (“Aktienrente”) as too risky, while their affiliated pension schemes (“Versorgungswerke”) sell members insurance-wrapped stock/bond products with total costs up to 1.3% per year — roughly 10x the cost of a low-fee Nasdaq-100 ETF (0.13%).

Speaker views:

• Stefan: argues the unions are hypocritical for publicly calling equity investing “gambling” while privately selling members expensive equity-linked insurance products, and estimates that redirecting the 1% membership fee into a Nasdaq-100 ETF instead over 40 years would leave a member roughly €250,000-300,000 better off.