#154 Vonovia, Nvidia, Bitcoin, Strategy, Rocket Lab

Summary

Theses (episode spine)

• Vonovia (Max, long-term bullish, avg cost ~€25, stock now €21): the German federal coalition’s move to block housing-company expropriation nationwide removed a political-risk overhang on Berlin landlords; Max sees a 35% discount to book value (P/B ~0.65) and ~6% dividend yield as an attractive long-term entry, and also sells cash-secured puts on the stock for premium income.
• Vonovia has fallen 26% since Feb 27 (pre-Iran-war high of ~€29) to ~€21, which the hosts attribute to Iran-driven oil/inflation fears keeping rates higher, hurting the highly leveraged (LTV ~45%) real estate sector.
• Bitcoin (Stefan, bullish, targeting an autumn 2026 bottom/rally): laid out eight reasons (Cantor Fitzgerald cycle-timing analysis, whale/ETF accumulation, M2 money supply at an all-time high, rotation out of AI/semis, falling oil price, a new Fed governor pushing rate cuts, and the Aug 7 Clarity Act Senate deadline) and bought $10,000 of crypto last week, his first crypto purchase since February.
• Max is also long-term bullish on Bitcoin (via the IBIT ETF in Switzerland) but frustrated by the downtrend since October; he expects $100,000 to eventually be reclaimed once central banks pivot to cutting rates, and flags last week’s turn to positive weekly crypto ETF inflows as an early signal.
• Stefan defends Michael Saylor/Strategy’s authorized sale of up to $1.2B in Bitcoin (~2.5% of holdings) as smart balance-sheet management to satisfy rating agencies and win S&P 500 inclusion, not a loss of conviction — noting neither the stock nor Bitcoin fell on the actual sale.
• Rocket Lab (Max, bullish, avg cost ~$30, stock now $77 after nearly halving from its ~$150 high): calls the $8B Iridium acquisition (cash+stock, $54/share, 24% premium) transformative and the record-breaking, fully successful Victus Haze mission for the US Space Force proof of execution; he plans to add more if the stock drops to $70.
• Nvidia (Max, holds at $90 avg cost, stock now $203): not buying more at current levels, but would add a first tranche around $190 and a further tranche at $160-170, preferring to wait for a new 52-week low given he’s already deep in profit.
• Netflix: Stefan bought a short-dated call option about two weeks ago betting on a rebound into Thursday’s earnings after the stock neared a fresh 52-week low; Max holds shares at a $95 average cost (down ~25%) and stays fundamentally positive long-term but isn’t adding right now due to limited cash.
• UnitedHealth (Max, bullish, bought at $295, now ~$429, +63% since the March low): credits the return of the previous CEO for restoring management stability and consistency.
• China reportedly easing restrictions to allow limited Nvidia Hopper 200-class chip sales to Alibaba, ByteDance and DeepSeek is seen by Max as a positive catalyst worth roughly $6-7B in incremental Nvidia revenue, with similar upside expected for AMD once actual Chinese deliveries resume.

$VNA (Vonovia SE)

Convergence / divergence: Only Max discussed Vonovia on this episode — no second speaker’s view to compare, so no convergence/divergence to report.

Speaker calls:

• Max (bullish, long-term, entry €25): Remains bullish long-term on Vonovia, citing a 35% discount to book value (P/B ~0.65) and a ~6% dividend yield now that the Berlin expropriation political risk has eased, and also sells cash-secured puts on the stock for premium income.

Cross-check:

• Price: €21.44 (2026-07-10), P/E ~5.2 (TTM), mkt cap €18.16B. Next earnings: 2026-07-31 (H1 2026 results).
• Recent headlines worth knowing: Analyst consensus rating “Buy”, average 12-month price target €31.93 (+51% from current price). Berlin expropriation debate largely defused politically — consistent with what Max said on the show.
• Inconsistencies: none flagged.

$BTC (Bitcoin)

Convergence / divergence: Both hosts are bullish on Bitcoin, but for different reasons and horizons — Stefan cites a specific autumn 2026 cycle-bottom thesis with eight supporting factors and just deployed new capital, while Max is more of a patient long-term holder waiting for a rate-cut pivot without a defined near-term catalyst.

Speaker calls:

• Stefan (bullish, autumn 2026): Listed eight reasons (cycle-bottom timing per Cantor Fitzgerald analysis, whale/ETF accumulation, M2 money supply at an all-time high, rotation out of AI/semis, falling oil price, potential Fed rate cuts under new Fed leadership, and the Aug 7 Clarity Act Senate deadline) why Bitcoin could bottom and rally by autumn 2026, and bought $10,000 of crypto last week on this view.
• Max (bullish, target $100,000): Holds Bitcoin via the IBIT ETF (bought in Switzerland) and is frustrated by the extended downtrend since October, but expects $100,000 to eventually be reclaimed, likely once central banks pivot to rate cuts; notes weekly crypto fund inflows turned positive last week as a possible early signal.

Cross-check:

• Price: $64,630 (2026-07-15), mkt cap ~$1.33T.
• Recent headlines worth knowing: CLARITY Act cleared Senate Banking Committee 15-9 on 2026-05-14 but full Senate vote stalled on stablecoin yield, DeFi oversight and ethics provisions; narrow window before Aug 7 recess, now seen as 50/50 to pass this year — matches the deadline Stefan referenced.
• Inconsistencies: Price is roughly half of its prior 2025 all-time high (~$126k), consistent with the “bear-market bottom” framing on the show, not a contradiction.

$SOL (Solana)

Convergence / divergence: Only Stefan discussed Solana — no second speaker’s view to compare.

Speaker calls:

• Stefan (bullish): Bought roughly 88 Solana as about two-thirds of a $10,000 crypto purchase made last week, his first crypto buy since February.

Cross-check:

• Price: $78.05 (2026-07-14/15), mkt cap ~$45.5B.
• Recent headlines worth knowing: SBI Holdings + SMFG launched “SBI Solana Global” JV; Clearstream (Deutsche Börse) added SOL to regulated institutional custody. Price 74% below all-time high ($293), lowest since Dec 2023, social sentiment very negative despite rising active addresses/throughput.
• Inconsistencies: none flagged.

$ETH (Ethereum)

Convergence / divergence: Only Stefan discussed Ethereum — no second speaker’s view to compare.

Speaker calls:

• Stefan (bullish): Bought a few Ethereum as the remaining third of his $10,000 crypto purchase last week.

Cross-check:

• Price: $1,879 (2026-07-15), mkt cap ~$233B.
• Recent headlines worth knowing: Down sharply from ~$4,950 2025 ATH; Ethereum Institutional nonprofit launched 2026-07-01 as neutral institutional contact point; Vitalik Buterin published “Lean Ethereum” roadmap (quantum safety, privacy, scalability through 2029).
• Inconsistencies: none flagged.

$MSTR (Strategy / MicroStrategy)

Convergence / divergence: Only Stefan discussed Strategy — no second speaker’s view to compare.

Speaker calls:

• Stefan (bullish): Defended Michael Saylor’s authorized sale of up to $1.2B in Bitcoin (~2.5% of holdings) as smart balance-sheet management to satisfy rating agencies and win S&P 500 inclusion rather than a sign of distress, noting neither the stock nor Bitcoin fell on the actual sale.

Cross-check:

• Price: $98.58 (2026-07-16). Holds 843,775 BTC at avg cost $66,384.56 (total $33.14B).
• Recent headlines worth knowing: Sold 3,588 BTC (~$216M) on 2026-07-06 to replenish USD reserve. Stock down ~77% over trailing 12 months, far below Nov 2024 ATH of $473.83. Consensus analyst target ~$374.50.
• Inconsistencies: The recent bitcoin sale is real (confirmed by press) and matches the scale Stefan described (~2.5% of holdings), supporting his framing — but note the sale represents a faster pace of selling than Strategy’s historical “never sell” positioning, worth watching if it continues.

$RKLB (Rocket Lab)

Convergence / divergence: Only Max discussed Rocket Lab — no second speaker’s view to compare.

Speaker calls:

• Max (bullish, long-term, entry $30): Sees the $8B Iridium acquisition (cash+stock, $54/share, 24% premium) as transformative and the record-breaking, fully successful Victus Haze mission for the US Space Force as proof of execution; already up over 100% on his ~$30 average cost, he plans to add more if the stock drops to $70.

Cross-check:

• Price: $76.25 (2026-07-15), P/E N/A (unprofitable, -238.6), mkt cap $45.61B. Next earnings: 2026-08-06.
• Recent headlines worth knowing: Announced $8B acquisition of Iridium Communications, aiming to become a vertically integrated space platform — matches what Max described.
• Inconsistencies: none flagged.

$NVDA (Nvidia)

Convergence / divergence: Only Max discussed Nvidia directly — no second speaker’s view to compare.

Speaker calls:

• Max (neutral, entry $90): Already holds Nvidia at a $90 average cost and isn’t buying more at $203, but would add a first tranche around $190 and a further tranche in the $160-170 zone, preferring to see a new 52-week low before adding to an already profitable position.

Cross-check:

• Price: $210.32 (2026-07-14), P/E 32.44 (below 12-month avg of 44.35), mkt cap ~$5.1T. Next earnings: 2026-08-26.
• Recent headlines worth knowing: US officials say only a “trivial” number of H200 chips have shipped to China under new export license; Beijing is slowing local purchases of US-designed chips to support domestic players (Huawei), NVIDIA does not expect near-term China AI revenue.
• Inconsistencies: This tempers the show’s China-easing catalyst thesis somewhat — actual near-term China chip revenue looks smaller than the $6-7B upside Max floated, per US officials’ own characterization of shipments as “trivial” so far.

$AMD (Advanced Micro Devices)

Convergence / divergence: Only Max spoke to AMD directly on-mic, though he notes Stefan also holds a position — no divergence to report.

Speaker calls:

• Max (bullish): Says the reported China export easing should also benefit AMD, where he and Stefan already hold winning positions from year-to-date performance, with further upside potential.

Cross-check:

• Price: figures across sources were inconsistent in this search (roughly $421 most recently sourced, but other results showed $55-$567) — treat as unverified pending a live quote. P/E ~179 trailing / ~64 forward. Mkt cap ~$891B (2026-07-09). Next earnings: 2026-08-04.
• Recent headlines worth knowing: US regulators approved sales of select AMD AI chips to Chinese firms (ZTE subsidiary, Kingsoft Cloud); Goldman Sachs raised price target to $640, KeyBanc to $725 on AI server strength — corroborates the China-easing catalyst Max mentioned.
• Inconsistencies: Price data was noisy/conflicting across sources in this cross-check; do not rely on the price figure above without a live quote.

$NFLX (Netflix)

Convergence / divergence: Both bullish, but on different time horizons — Stefan’s is a short-dated tactical options bet into the Thursday earnings print, while Max’s is a long-term fundamental hold he’s not actively adding to right now.

Speaker calls:

• Stefan (bullish, through earnings): Bought a call option (Optionsschein) about two weeks ago betting on a rebound into Thursday’s post-market earnings report after the stock neared a fresh 52-week low.
• Max (bullish, long-term, entry $95): Holds Netflix shares at a $95 average cost (down about 25%) and remains fundamentally positive long-term, but isn’t adding right now due to limited cash, saying he has other stocks higher on his buy list.

Cross-check:

• Price: $73.96 (2026-07-15/16, post 10-for-1 split completed 2025-11-17). P/E 23.86, mkt cap ~$309.6B. Next earnings: 2026-07-16 (after market close, Q2 2026), consensus ~$12.57B revenue (+13.5% YoY), ~$0.79 EPS.
• Recent headlines worth knowing: Netflix stock down ~31% since completing its split, near a fresh 52-week low ahead of the print — matches what both hosts described.
• Inconsistencies: none flagged (the low nominal share price reflects the 2025 stock split, not a crash).

$UNH (UnitedHealth Group)

Convergence / divergence: Only Max discussed UnitedHealth — no second speaker’s view to compare.

Speaker calls:

• Max (bullish, long-term, entry $295): Bought UnitedHealth at $295 last summer (as low as $237 in August) and remains bullish, up about 63-64% since the March low, crediting the return of the previous CEO for restoring management stability and consistency.

Cross-check:

• Price: ~$418-425 (2026-07-15). P/E 31.48 (up from ~19.1 avg over past 4 quarters). Mkt cap ~$385.6B. Next earnings: 2026-07-16 (Q2, est. $110.05B revenue, $4.84 EPS).
• Recent headlines worth knowing: Stock up ~28.6% year-to-date, on a tear heading into Q2 earnings.
• Inconsistencies: none flagged.

Topics discussed

Berlin housing expropriation debate defused

Summary: The federal SPD/CDU-CSU coalition agreed to pursue a nationwide law blocking the socialization/expropriation of housing companies, which made a competing Bavarian-sponsored Bundesrat motion on the same subject unnecessary and led to it being pulled from the agenda. This effectively blocks implementation of Berlin’s 2021 “Deutsche Wohnen & Co. enteignen” referendum, approved by 59.1% of Berlin voters; the DWE campaign called the move undemocratic and vowed a “summer of protest” ahead of Berlin’s September 20 state election.

Speaker views:

• Max: Sees this as removing a political-risk premium that had been suppressing Vonovia’s valuation and freezing its development activity for years.

Potential impact: Max argues less political-risk premium should let Vonovia’s share price close its gap to the fair value of its property portfolio over time.

Iran conflict escalation drives oil price and rate fears

Summary: Renewed Middle East escalation over the weekend — including Houthi forces in Yemen entering the conflict and Iran threatening to tax/control traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — pushed Brent crude from about $77 to over $83 intraday, reviving inflation and rate-hike fears. The hosts said this indirectly hurts leveraged, rate-sensitive sectors like real estate (Vonovia’s LTV is ~45%) via higher discount rates and financing costs.

Speaker views:

• Stefan: Calls Vonovia an “indirect Iran war loser” via the oil-inflation-rates chain, but suggests the resulting dip could be a buying opportunity if the US can bring Iran back to the negotiating table.
• Max: Notes higher rates directly raise real estate companies’ financing costs and feed into lower valuations via a higher discount rate on future cash flows.

Potential impact: Higher oil prices are seen as feeding into inflation expectations, delaying central-bank rate cuts and pressuring rate-sensitive equities such as real estate stocks.

CPI report seen as the swing factor for the Fed’s July decision

Summary: Fed governor Christopher Waller said the US economy remains on solid footing (growth, spending, labor market) but is at a “crossroads” on inflation policy. The hosts flagged the CPI report due the next day — the last one before the late-July Fed meeting — as the key data point deciding whether the Fed holds or hikes rates, with consensus headline inflation expected around 4.1% YoY (a 12-month high), driven partly by energy prices and by rising chip/server costs feeding into tech goods inflation.

Speaker views:

• Max: Says tomorrow’s CPI print is the swing factor for whether the Fed holds or raises rates later in July, with consensus headline inflation around 4.1% YoY driven by energy and rising chip/server prices.

Potential impact: A hotter-than-expected CPI print would reduce the odds of near-term rate cuts, which the hosts linked earlier to pressure on rate-sensitive stocks like Vonovia.

Q2 earnings season kickoff and the bank/IPO windfall

Summary: Max previewed the start of Q2 earnings, led by big banks (JPMorgan, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Wells Fargo) followed later in the week by ASML, TSMC, Johnson & Johnson, BlackRock and Morgan Stanley. He highlighted that banks — especially lead bookrunner Goldman Sachs — benefited from a wave of large 2025 IPOs (SpaceX, Cerebras, and SK Hynix’s record US ADS listing, which was seven-times oversubscribed). He also noted Q1 S&P 500 earnings growth of about 25% with 11% revenue growth, and said consensus expects over 20% Q2 earnings growth, arguing this reflects genuine fundamental strength rather than a dot-com-style valuation bubble.

Speaker views:

• Max: Expects a strong Q2 earnings season (>20% consensus EPS growth) built on real fundamentals rather than valuation expansion, and expects banks to post a strong kickoff thanks to 2025’s IPO wave, even though neither he nor Stefan owns any bank stocks.

Potential impact: If over 20% earnings growth materializes, Max says it would support further S&P 500 upside (he estimated roughly another 10% of value potential) and confirm the rally is fundamentals- rather than bubble-driven.

Bitcoin bear-market bottom thesis and the Clarity Act deadline

Summary: Stefan built an eight-point case for a Bitcoin bottom and rally by autumn 2026, including cycle-timing analysis, whale and ETF accumulation, record global M2 money supply, and a possible AI-to-crypto sector rotation. He also flagged August 7, 2026 — when the US Senate’s summer recess begins — as the last realistic window to pass the Clarity Act before the vote risks slipping to 2027, with sticking points including ethics rules, Trump’s crypto dealings, money-laundering concerns and stablecoin reward rules.

Speaker views:

• Stefan: Says passage of the Clarity Act before the Senate recess would bring legal certainty that could pull significant institutional capital into crypto and lift prices, while failure risks a delay to 2027.

Potential impact: Stefan frames the August 7 deadline as a binary near-term catalyst for institutional crypto capital flows.

Chip-sector deals and China’s easing on Nvidia/AMD exports

Summary: Apple confirmed a $30B+ multi-year chip agreement with Broadcom (over $15B in US-fabricated chips, a $1.5B expansion of Broadcom’s Fort Collins facility, and custom ASIC silicon through 2031). Separately, press reports said Chinese regulators are easing restrictions to allow limited purchases of Nvidia’s Hopper 200-class chips by Alibaba, ByteDance and DeepSeek; the hosts noted the same relaxation should, in principle, extend to AMD, though Chinese buyers have reportedly paused actual deliveries despite the US granting licenses.

Speaker views:

• Max: Calls the China easing signal very positive for Nvidia, worth a potential $6-7B revenue upside, and says it should also benefit AMD.

Potential impact: Analysts cited by Max estimate the eased China restrictions could add roughly $6-7B in incremental Nvidia revenue if Beijing’s stance keeps softening.

TSMC’s record June revenue signals continued AI demand strength

Summary: TSMC’s June revenue hit a record NT$442B (~$13.8-14B), up 6.2% month-over-month and 67.9% year-over-year; Q2 group revenue grew 36% year-over-year, near the top of its $39-40B guidance range. Max attributed the strength to fully sold-out N3 capacity for Nvidia, AMD and Apple, contrasting it with the same week’s brutal circuit-breaker sell-off in Korean chip stocks (Samsung, SK Hynix).

Speaker views:

• Max: Says TSMC’s blowout June revenue with sold-out N3 capacity shows no near-term slowdown in AI infrastructure demand, and he was close to adding to his Korea ETF after the Samsung/SK Hynix sell-off but is waiting for the Middle East situation to calm first.