#158 Der schlechteste Ökonom der Welt, Palantir, AMD, McDonald's

Summary

Theses (episode spine)

• Palantir’s Q2 was “other worldly” (CEO Alex Karp’s words): revenue $1.94B (+94% YoY, beat by 7.2%), US Commercial revenue +150% YoY, EBIT margin 61.7%, Rule of 40 at ~155% — both hosts are large holders and remain bullish, expecting a retest of the old ATH near $200-207.
• Stefan holds Palantir as his second-largest position (20% of portfolio, up ~1848% on a $7.40 cost basis); Max built it in four tranches (around $30, $22, under $20, $80) and is up over 500%.
• Both hosts see McDonald’s as undervalued near its 52-week low and bought exposure (Stefan: long-dated call option bought at $286; Max: short put with $240 strike), calling it an “Iran war loser” whose stock has lagged since the Israel-Iran war began around February 27, due to elevated fuel, agriculture and logistics costs.
• McDonald’s Q2 beat on EPS ($3.38 vs $3.31) but US comparable sales grew only +0.8% (Max expected more given the World Cup); CEO admitted the company made “bad bets” pulling back digital deals and a Buy-One-Add-One promotion, which accounted for two-thirds of the shortfall.
• AMD’s Data Center segment revenue nearly doubled (+107% YoY to $6.7B), total revenue +50% YoY, but the stock fell ~9-11% on a “sell the news” reaction and was hit further by news that xAI/Starlink will buy exclusively from Nvidia from 2027, ending prior AMD purchases there.
• Both hosts downgraded AMD to a “hold” rating despite the strong numbers, expecting a weaker August-September period and waiting for a pullback toward $440-450 before adding a first tranche.
• Baird raised its AMD price target from $625 to $1250, projecting Data Center GPU revenue could reach $147B by 2030 with AMD capturing roughly 15% of the AI chip market.
• Opening segment (“Schmutz der Woche”): both hosts sharply criticize DIW Berlin economist Marcel Fratzscher for an op-ed arguing stock market gains harm democracy, listing what they call a track record of wrong past calls (inflation, refugee-driven pension funding, deindustrialization).

$PLTR (Palantir)

Convergence / divergence: Full agreement — both hosts are large, long-standing holders who see the post-earnings rally continuing toward the old all-time high, and both would add a first tranche at current levels.

Speaker calls:

• Stefan (bullish, long-term, target ~$207): Stefan is up about 1848% on Palantir, his second-largest position at 20% of portfolio, and expects the stock to retest its old all-time high near $207 given accelerating growth and a 47% rally off the June low.
• Max (bullish, long-term, target $180-200): Max is up over 500% across four tranches and expects a catch-up trade toward the $180-200 all-time-high range, arguing slower-growing peers like Snowflake and Datadog have already outperformed Palantir this year.

Cross-check:

• Price: $172.41 (P/E ~107-175x depending on methodology, mkt cap $421.1B). Next earnings: 2026-11-09.
• Recent headlines worth knowing: Q2 2026 revenue beat by 7.2% (8 straight beats); stock up sharply post-earnings but still roughly 40% off its 2026 high per one preview note.
• ⚠️ Inconsistencies: Stock (~$172) is already well above the $158 level discussed on the episode and close to Stefan’s ~$207 target reference point, suggesting the rally the hosts anticipated has partly played out since recording.

$MCD (McDonald’s)

Convergence / divergence: Full agreement on direction (both bullish, both positioned via options rather than shares), but they diverge on structure — Stefan owns a long-dated call betting on a broad recovery, while Max sold a put betting the stock won’t fall much further.

Speaker calls:

• Stefan (bullish, through Jan 2028): Stefan bought a long-dated call option near the 52-week low and calls McDonald’s an “Iran war loser”, arguing elevated fuel, agriculture and logistics costs tied to the Israel-Iran war have kept the stock 20% below its late-February all-time high; he still rates it a buy given a 2.72% dividend yield.
• Max (bullish, unspecified): Max sold a cash-secured put near the 52-week low, viewing McDonald’s as a low-downside buy given resilient nighttime traffic and heavier investment in technology reducing staff needs.

Cross-check:

• Price: $274.13 (P/E 22.27 TTM, mkt cap $193.3B). Next earnings: 2026-10-22.
• Recent headlines worth knowing: Q2 2026 adjusted EPS $3.38 beat estimates by 1.2%, but revenue of $7.1B missed forecasts by 0.56% amid slowing global sales growth.
• ⚠️ Inconsistencies: none flagged — price matches what hosts cited during recording ($274).

$AMD (AMD)

Convergence / divergence: Full agreement — despite strong Data Center growth, both downgraded to hold after the post-earnings “sell the news” reaction and the Nvidia/xAI exclusivity news, and both want a pullback before adding.

Speaker calls:

• Stefan (neutral, next 1-2 months): Stefan downgraded AMD to hold after the post-earnings “sell the news” drop and the news that xAI/Starlink will buy exclusively from Nvidia starting 2027, and would wait for a pullback toward $440-450 before adding a first tranche.
• Max (neutral, Aug-Sep 2026): Max also rates AMD a hold despite Data Center revenue nearly doubling (+107% YoY) and Baird’s price target hike to $1250, expecting near-term weakness through August-September before entering a first tranche.

Cross-check:

• Price: $469-480 (P/E ~123.4x trailing / ~43.5-66x forward, mkt cap $789.1B). Next earnings: 2026-11-03.
• Recent headlines worth knowing: stock up +196% over the trailing 52 weeks; analysts eyeing AI-driven upside ahead of the next earnings report.
• ⚠️ Inconsistencies: none flagged — current range is consistent with the $482 level and post-earnings pullback discussed by the hosts.

Topics discussed

Criticism of economist Marcel Fratzscher (DIW Berlin)

Summary: Stefan reads and rebuts a Fratzscher opinion column arguing that stock market gains harm democracy by benefiting the wealthy while inflation and housing costs hurt lower-income households. Stefan calls DIW Berlin a taxpayer-funded left-leaning NGO and Fratzscher its highest-paid representative, estimating his combined salary and professorship income at EUR160,000-220,000. Both hosts list what they characterize as a history of wrong predictions by Fratzscher, including on inflation during the Ukraine war, deindustrialization, and refugee-driven pension funding.

Speaker views:

• Stefan: Argues inequality is a natural outcome of differing effort and ability, blames government policy (taxes, energy and housing regulation) rather than stock markets for cost-of-living pressure, and says Fratzscher has repeatedly been wrong in past public forecasts.
• Max: Agrees with Stefan’s critique, adding that Fratzscher is repeatedly invited onto talk shows despite a track record of being wrong, and says the hosts keep covering him because “you have to counter stupidity or it wins.”